Finding the right recovery plan

Finding the right recovery plan

The crisis is gaining ground. It has gripped our countries, spread to major emerging countries and the infection will most probably not spare Africa. The World Bank has just downgraded growth forecasts for Africa to 3.3% in 2009 compared to 5.4% in 2008. Financial markets have little to do with this contamination.  In Africa it stems more from volatility in commodity prices, lower export volumes and the fall in migrant remittances which for some countries accounted for up to 30% of GDP. Finally, the scale of the crisis in our countries has prompted fears that public aid flows and private capital flows to the developing world may fall: this has already been seen in the past. Yet our own recovery will only come about if growth is maintained in these countries which will be the only ones to see positive – albeit timid - growth rates in 2009.

The recovery should consequently be planned from a global perspective. There are two reasons for this: we must help developing countries that have been hit by the current turmoil and we must help bring back economic growth to our own countries. We therefore need to come up with a treatment that will cure both symptoms at the same time.

The recovery must also be green. Indeed, all our actions must now be designed with climate issues and the increasing scarcity of natural resources in mind. We can use the recovery to our advantage and direct funds towards areas that promote long-term development, such as energy efficiency or developing renewable energies. We live in a world in need of new major challenges that tie the destinies of the North and South. One such challenge is “green growth”: it has already been taken up by a number of governments – particularly the new American administration – and may prove to be an engine for a new technological revolution.

Finally, if the recovery is to be sustainable, it must be inclusive. There is a pressing need to reflect on how to manage the social consequences of the crisis on developing societies; particularly because greater prosperity on a global scale will only come about if inequalities are reduced. We will consequently have to find “social safety belts” that can protect vulnerable populations from the immediate effects of the crisis.
This requires pushing the food agenda to the forefront of our concerns and strengthening sectors - such as the health and microfinance sectors - that protect the poorest from the consequences of the worsening socio-economic situation.

The G20 London conclusions were agreed at the highest level and target a global, green and inclusive recovery. We development actors now have to swiftly put this resolution into action. We already have the tools for this. We now have the mandate. Agence Française de Développement will be contributing to this effort to build a global and fair recovery by mobilizing all its resources, its range of instruments and the expertise of its staff.

 

Jean-Michel Severino is Chief Executive Officer of Agence Française de Développement (AFD)