Agriculture and food security

RESEARCH

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March 2012

Agriculture and food security

The agricultural transition of the Southern countries, which could enable them to increase the overall productivity of their economies through agricultural development, has not yet taken place. Three-fourths of the population of developing countries live in rural areas and earn their livelihoods from agriculture, a sector that accounts for less than half the GDP of these countries. Food security is still not assured for 800 million people. Yet according to the lessons of history, and despite a few counter-examples, agricultural transition is a vital factor of growth. The economic development of Southern countries depends on expansion of the agricultural sector, although this alone will not suffice to generate a high rate of growth.

This transition cannot take place under the same circumstances as it did in the countries that are now developed, for two reasons. First, growth in the non-agricultural economy, which is absolutely necessary to create jobs for the workers leaving the agricultural sector, is and will remain insufficient to absorb this excess labour quickly, as integration into the new global value chains is increasingly difficult, the absorption capacity of the urban informal sector is saturated and migration is now restricted.

Second, these countries can no longer employ protection, supports and fiscal transfers to the extent that they once could, owing to past policy decisions, the new rules of the World Trade Organisation, their structural indebtedness and their insufficiently vigorous conduct of agricultural policy.

Although the times have changed, the development of these countries will still depend on increasing agricultural productivity. One obvious reason for this is the current imbalances in the agricultural and agri-food sectors. These imbalances, caused by population growth and the relative, unstable scarcity of agricultural output, presage considerable changes in both developing and developed countries’ conceptions of the role of agriculture. Between now and 2050, the population of sub-Saharan Africa may rise to 1.8 billion, two and a half times the current population. The urban population of the Mediterranean region should amount to 75% of total population in 2025, and that of sub-Saharan Africa is expected to triple between 2000 and 2030. This staggering rate of population growth and increasingly rapid urbanisation will clearly impact on demand for food, and in addition, there are new factors that constrain supply: pressure on the environment, the emergence of non-food markets for agricultural products, fluctuations in agricultural commodity prices as markets are liberalised further, epidemics, etc. The amount of food available worldwide is currently insufficient to meet global demand, and will be still less so in the future as demand rises, in terms of quality, quantity and price – particularly in a context of surging agricultural prices.

These new circumstances should change the terms of the debate over the role of agriculture in current development strategies, by compelling recognition of the importance of the agricultural sector in economic growth and reduction of poverty and inequality. It is essential to understand this new context and its implications in order to support national and regional agricultural and agri-food policies, which are the only means of ensuring sustainable improvement in agricultural productivity.

Corresponding research officer

Marie-Cécile Thirion

Results list

Notes et Documents N°22 | Development Aid: Why and How? Towards strategies for effectiveness

11/10/2010

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A Savoir n°5 | Transition démographique et emploi en Afrique subsaharienne

01/04/2011

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News

04/03/2011

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