Transitioning to low-carbon and resilient development by 2050

The 2050 Facility

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The 2050 Facility, AFD
2050 Facility

The Paris Agreement invites all Parties to establish and communicate long-term low greenhouse gas (GHG) emission development strategies. Each strategy should include a pathway to be implemented by the second half of the century which takes into account the institutional, economic, financial, technological and social changes needed to achieve sustainable, low-carbon development in a more resilient environment.

The aim of the 2050 Facility, set up in 2018 as part of France’s commitments at the One Planet Summit in Paris, is to support AFD's partner countries in the implementation of this pathway.

This new facility, which has received €30 million in the form of grants, has been developed by AFD to strengthen climate policy dialog through the financing of studies and capacity-building activities.

Its creation marks the launch of a multi-year, cooperative approach involving some 30 countries which are being supported by AFD in their transition strategies, in line with the objectives set by the Paris Agreement;


The 2050 Facility, AFD
Advancing Development Strategies in Line with the Fight against Climate Change

The effects of global warming (rising sea levels, droughts, floods and weather-related disasters) are already visible today, posing new risks to the development of the poorest countries and undermining the socio-economic progress made in recent decades. 

It is often because many governments are not capable of quantifying the extent of future impacts that they are less willing to establish and finance development policies tailored to these new challenges. 

Nevertheless, it is essential that the effects of global warming are mitigated, by reducing our GHG emissions as quickly as possible. The highest emitting countries must make a marked effort to achieve this, using the resources at their disposal as well as those contributed by the international community.

For their part, stakeholders in the development sector must work to raise awareness of climate issues among decision-makers at all levels, by raising financing for climate change adaptation and GHG-emission reduction policies in the countries of intervention, particularly with regard to long-term investment projects (energy, agriculture, forestry and other land use, transport, buildings, industry and land use planning).

Nationally Determined Contributions and Long-term Strategies: Adopting an Integrated Approach

Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) are a requirement of the Paris Agreement. Each country must provide regular updates on the actions taken to reduce its GHG emissions. This is the main purpose of the climate plans, which are regularly reviewed. They should provide evidence of the efforts made by each country to keep the rise in global warming well below 2°C, and of more sustained efforts to limit this increase to 1.5°C relative to pre-industrial levels. 

Defining each country’s NDCs is mandatory, but the medium-term target set for their implementation by 2030 does not, in most cases, allow for an in-depth review of the development models already being followed. Nor does the tight deadline allow these objectives to be sufficiently ambitious to be fully aligned with the Paris Agreement. 

Conversely, the development of long-term strategies (LTS) enables various decarbonization scenarios to be explored for individual countries, helping in the drafting of shorter-term decisions, including those relating to the revised NDC targets. LTSs thus provide an opportunity for governments to forecast the budgetary and financial costs of their initiatives and to identify the policy reforms and priority investments required to build toward a resilient, low-carbon future. They also serve as a valuable guide for finance and development players who want to support sustainable and inclusive development. 

As important as an LTS may be, there is scope for improvement. Specifically, these strategies should take into account the Sustainable Development Goals more comprehensively at the design phase. All stakeholders should be involved at each stage of the country’s development to ensure that everyone has a better understanding of the transformations required, which could be the subject of a new social contract.

The AFD solution

The 2050 Facility, AFD

The purpose of the 2050 Facility is to support technical cooperation and capacity-building activities. To this end, it finances studies aiming to provide recommendations to inform strategic thinking in countries committed to developing long-term strategies. The Facility can assist in the definition of sector-wide goals, and/or the redefinition of public policies to drive change, and/or the implementation of strategies in sectors with major climate challenges.

Ownership of the process is ensured through institution-based support, the participation of institutions in partner countries such as government ministries, universities, research centers, and think tanks, as well as by consulting with the different stakeholders and various actors (public and private sectors, civil society) to develop plans and programs, and share results.

There are many opportunities for intervention which may involve: 

  • macroeconomic modeling of the transition, specifically, through the use of the AFD GEMMES model
  • energy transition: sector-wide modeling of energy pathways, capacity building in relation to modeling tools; modeling and optimization of electrical power systems; the macroeconomic impacts of energy transition, transition risks
  • mobility and urban development: roadmap for the decarbonization of the sector, long-term transport plan, land use planning, mobility policies, urban development policies, support for the integration of climate policies
  • ecological transition and natural resources: long-term strategies for the protection and management of forest resources, water resources in their multiple uses, rural development, land use planning, meeting food requirements
  • demographic and social transition: impact assessment and policy development for adaptive social protection, redeployment models for resources used to subsidize fossil fuels, vocational training and just transition.

The projects

The 2050 Facility, AFD
  • Prospective Study of Energy Transition Scenarios until 2050

Algeria is one of the main exporters of gas in the world, with an economic model that is heavily dependent on hydrocarbons. Committed to reducing its GHG emissions by 7% to 22% by 2030, the Algerian Ministry of Energy has asked the 2050 Facility to support a cooperative technical project to model its energy transition and development pathway until 2050.

To promote the energy transition in Africa, AFD supports the establishment of energy services that are accessible to all, efficient and low-carbon. Supports are based on three major assets: diversified financing, appropriate technical support and a wide network of partners.

Within this framework of technical cooperation, the support financed by the 2050 Facility aims to build capacity in the field of energy sector forecasting (technical-economic and macroeconomic) modelling to support the General Direction of Prospective Studies (DGEP). This support would contribute to Algeria’s capacity to develop public policies promoting the transition to a low-carbon economy, while guaranteeing energy independence and the balance of public accounts, aware of the issues of economic development and social challenges.

  • Support for the creation of low-carbon and resilient development trajectories in Ceara and Nordeste

In Brazil, the State of Ceará has a climate policy, with an established legislative and institutional framework and quantified goals by sector, reflecting the political will of this State to fight against climate change. 

The semi-arid region of the Brazilian Northeast, and in particular the State of Ceará, is facing a severe multi-year drought that, together with the increasing needs in the metropolitan areas, has placed the issue of water at the center of the political agenda. Water resource management must be carried out in an integrated manner, taking into account its direct links with the energy sector, increased by the importance of hydroelectricity in the Brazilian energy matrix, and with the agricultural sector, which plays a leading role in the Brazilian economy. 

In this context, 2050 Facility supports the State of Ceará Meteorology and Water Resources Foundation (FUNCEME), CIRAD and its partners to revisit its public policies in a context of chronic water restriction and to design a climate-resilient, low-carbon sustainable development pathway.

More specifically, the 2050 Facility project supports FUNCEME and its partners CIRAD-IRD-INERA to carry out research and capacity building activities, focusing on: 
- the knowledge development on : water resources (hydrological modeling), on climate change impact on the water/energy/agriculture nexus, on current public policies efficiency on that matter;
identification of resilient, low-carbon agricultural development pathways, that takes into account agro-ecological transition, and co-construction of long term resilient and low-carbon pathways that considers all  water uses  (projection of demand and allocation between the different uses); 
support to water sector institutions in the definition of tools (methodologies, stakeholder consultation mechanisms -TIS, territorial intelligence system-, incentive and regulatory public policy measures) to guide investments and uses, particularly in the supply of drinking water for urban areas and agricultural production systems.       

Burkina Faso
  • Support for the formulation of a long-term low-carbon and resilient development strategy

Burkina Faso since at least 2010 considers climate as a central issue in its national plans and among its many policies in favor of the environment and sustainable development.

Funding from 2050 Facility was granted to the Ministry of the Environment, Green Economy and Climate Change of Burkina Faso to support the formulation of a Long-Term, Low-Emission Development Strategy (LT-LEDS). This LT-LEDS will be submitted to the UNFCCC in 2023, in response to the invitation to the Parties of the Convention as formulated in Article 4.19 of the Paris Agreement

Burkina Faso's LT-LEDS will guide the country's priorities for mitigation and adaptation, as well as support project identification and assess funding needs. The long-term dimension is necessary to understand the challenges of economical systemic transformation, to rethink development trajectories, and thus go beyond the incremental approach of medium-term plans, such as Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs).

Expected outcomes: This support from the 2050 Facility aims to strengthen dialogue on climate and development issues in Burkina Faso, particularly in strategic sectors for AFD, such as rural development and energy. With AFD’s and GGGI support, Burkina Faso would be one of the few countries in West Africa to develop a long-term strategy. The success of this initiative could encourage neighbor countries to engage in such process.

  • Modelling Energy Transition Scenarios to 2050 

The Cambodian economy is growing rapidly and the demand for electricity is booming: analyses forecast an average increase of 15% per year until 2040. The country has set out to meet several goals, i.e. to ensure affordable access to electricity for all and to obtain long-term energy security and independence, all while respecting the commitments of the Paris Agreement. 2050 Facility support to the Ministry of Economy and Finance and other ministries, such as Energy and Environment, aims to develop a long-term energy pathway modelling tool, to trigger and nurture multi-stakeholder political dialogue in the energy sector.

The objectives of the 2050 Facility technical cooperation are multiple: 
Define a long-term energy sector trajectory in line with the long-term objective of the Paris Agreement based on scenarios for the evolution of the sector and its impact on economic growth.
Define a strategy for the energy sector to support the country's growth and contribute to future national energy sector policies.
- Build the capacity of ministerial staff in macroeconomic and energy modeling and analysis.

This support will materialize in two phases: on the one hand through the creation of a technical-economic model of the energy sector in Cambodia; and on the other hand through a multi-sectoral macroeconomic model to define the consequences of certain energy sector policies and priorities, particularly as they affect the Cambodian economy, from GDP to employment.

In addition, the work produced in support of the 2050 Facility on the Energy Sector contributed to the country’s Long-Term Strategy For Carbon Neutrality communicated to the UNFCCC in 2021 commissioned by the Prime Minister. The SLT proposes an ambitious path for Cambodia to achieve both its development goals and carbon neutrality by 2050. This document complements and clarifies the two Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) submitted by Cambodia in 2015 and updated in 2020.

  • Public Policy Dialog on the Energy Transition Pathway

The 2050 Facility is supporting the implementation of public policy dialog, launched by the International Energy Agency (IEA

The fight against climate change and sustainable development are major strategic axes of Franco-Chinese cooperation. China has formulated a policy to gradually decarbonize its economy in order to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060. The 14th Five-Year Plan (2021-2025) sets out the first steps in this ambition, with a goal of reducing energy intensity by 13.5% and carbon intensity by 18%, through a very high rate of installation of renewable energy capacities.

2050 Facility supported between 2019 and 2021 the implementation of public policy dialogues with Chinese authorities by the International Energy Agency (IEA) as part of its clean energy transition program. The 2050 Facility funded three studies and publications regarding:
- Support for market training activities, in particular the new ETS (Emissions Trading Scheme) in order to improve its readability and pricing while promoting greenhouse gas emissions reduction.
Publications: China’s Emissions Trading Scheme (2020) and The Role of China’s ETS in Power Sector Decarbonisation (2021)
Support for key energy market reforms, through exchanges of best practices with key Chinese actors engaged in energy value chain optimization, transformation and decarbonization of the electricity system.
Webinar:  China’s Electric Power Sector Transformation Second Webinar
Support for the modelling of long-term low-carbon energy transition trajectories, in line with the 14th Chinese Five-Year Plan and commitments under the Paris Agreement.
Publication: An Energy Sector Roadmap to Carbon Neutrality in China (2021)

  • Development of the 2050 Strategy for Low-carbon and Resilient Development

The 2050 Facility supports supported the Colombian Ministry of Environment and Sustainable Development between 2019 and 2021 to carry out various activities resulting in the publication of its long-term strategy, communicated to the UNFCCC in 2021. This will now be the roadmap for the country’s transition to decarbonizing its economy, while integrating adaptation to climate change and disaster risk management.

The various activities carried out under the support financed by the 2050 Facility have been divided into four components:
- Identification and evaluation of transformative actions (investments, modification of the legal framework, economic instruments, social projects, etc. ) contributing to low-carbon and resilient development in Colombia.
- Detailed characterization and modelling of the adoption and deployment trajectories of the prioritized actions.
Additional studies (in particular for the analysis of the economic and financial impacts of the recommended actions and trajectories).
- Drafting of a technical document consolidating and integrating the identified actions and trajectories as well as the results of the consultation process and drafting of a more political synthesis document, corresponding to the “2050 Strategy”.

This project is an example of the AFD Group approach, implemented by Expertise France

  • Understanding the impact of climate transition risk on the Colombian economy and financial system

Following the first support provided by the 2050 Facility, a second study is underway for the benefit of the Ministry of Environment and Sustainable Development. The study aims to demonstrate to Colombian governments, private actors and civil society stakeholders the potential negative impacts of low-carbon transitions on the Colombian economy and financial system if not well managed. The microeconomic analysis conducted by the Climate Policy Initiative-Willis Tower Watson (CPI/WTW) and the University of Los Andes focuses on the impact on Colombia's coal and oil mining activities, which account for 60% of the country's exports.    
The study highlights the consequences for the stability of the financial system, the balance of public finances and the impact on workers, communities, companies and territories particularly exposed. It also suggests a series of recommendations to mitigate these risks and their impacts in order to accelerate the low-carbon transition.

  • Support for the organization, management and steering of Costa Rica's National Decarbonization Plan

In 2019, the government of Costa Rica presented its National Decarbonization Plan (PND), which aims to turn Costa Rica into a carbon neutral country by 2050. The PND was submitted to the UNFCCC in December 2019 as a long-term strategy under the Paris Agreement. AFD and Inter-American Development Bank are financially and technically supporting the implementation of the PND as part of a dialogue with the government of Costa Rica focusing on the priority areas of the PND (transport and the AFOLU sector - Agriculture, forestry and other land uses) as well as on cross-cutting climate governance topics such as the institutional, regulatory and financial framework. 

In this context, the project supported by the 2050 Facility provides technical cooperation support to help institutions structure themselves with necessary tools to to implement the decarbonization plan in the long term. Capacity building includes organizational support to the Ministry of Environment and Energy and to the unit in charge of the fight against climate change; consolidation of the Measurement/Notification/Verification (MNV) mechanism created in September 2019 to accompany the implementation of the PND at the sectoral level and its SINAMECC platform; development of a mechanism to monitor the results of the PND. Capacity building and support is also provided to the climate change unit of the Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock (MAG).

  • Low-carbon transition's impacts on employment

The goal of this second support financed by the 2050 Facility to Costa Rica is to evaluate the employment content of the country’s National Plan of Decarbonation (PND) in two phases. On the first part of the study, it is proposed to adopt a macro approach (input-output analysis) and to analyse the impacts on employment with a sectoral breakdown, at national and regional level taking into account the 11 development poles identified in the Productive territorial economic strategy for an inclusive and decarbonized economy 2020-2050 published in 2021. The results of this first phase have directly contributed to the formulation of the National Strategic 2050 Plan published in 2022.

In a second phase, it will be necessary to study at the micro level focusing on a few relevant economic sectors identified at the first stage, the trajectories of workers in a perspective of sectoral changes linked to the country’s low-carbon transition. The objective of this approach is to identify and to understand the labor market needs in each region, both in terms of their characteristics, as well as the transition-related capacity building needs. The sectoral and regionalized models that the country has developed will be used to study its different pathways to decarbonization at the local level. Finally, this work will lead to public policy recommendations that will be formulated to the authorities in particular in terms of job conversion and capacity building.

Côte d'Ivoire
  • Development of a modeling tool to support the definition of the energy transition strategy for 2050

As part of the electricity challenge of Côte d'Ivoire by 2050, which consists in reconciling economic development and climate commitments, the objectives of the 2050 Facility support are: 
- To produce decision-making support tools enabling the Ministry of Mines, Oil and Energy (MMPE) to take into account the challenges of fighting against poverty and climate change in its energy transition policy.
- To strengthen national capacities (notably MMPE, CI-ENERGIES, Institut National Polytechnique Felix Houphouët-Boigny and the economic policy analysis unit of Cires-CAPEC) in energy sector modeling and in understanding the links between the energy transition trajectory, poverty reduction and climate change.
- To develop a model of the energy sector coupled with a macroeconomic model allowing the creation of different energy transition scenarios and their impacts on main macroeconomic indicators (employment, GDP, trade balance, consumption, investment) and in terms of fight against poverty and climate change.

  • Support to Ecuador’s national decarbonization by 2050 strategy

The DDPLAC (Deep Decarbonization Pathways in Latin America and the Caribbean) project, co-funded with the Inter-American Development Bank completed in 2020, had the dual objective of building capacity in six countries (Argentina, Peru, Ecuador, Colombia, Mexico, Costa Rica) for the construction of long-term decarbonization scenarios and to create a community of practice at the regional level around the challenges of modelling the low-carbon transition, with the ambition to feed the process of defining the climate policies of these countries.

In the wake of this dynamic, this support financed by the 2050 Facility plans to support the Ecuadorian government in the development of its national mitigation plan for 2050, through the implementation of a modelling approach. This collaboration responds to a request from the Ministry of Environment, Water and Ecological Transition of Ecuador (MAATE), and seeks to capitalize on ELENA’s model developed under the DDPLAC.

The 2050 Facility-funded project will ensure the integration of science into national decarbonation planning and decision-making processes. The elements of analyses resulting from modelling work will be included in an inter-ministerial dialogue and a participatory process involving the main Ecuadorian organizations of the private sector, academia and civil society. Modelling activities will focus on the definition of possible and optimal emission trajectories for carbon neutrality by 2050 and the cost-benefit analysis of the selected decarbonization trajectory for the country.

  • Support to the formulation of the Long Term Low Carbon and Resilient Development Strategy (LT-LEDS)

Ethiopia is highly vulnerable to the negative impacts of climate change, especially the agriculture, water and energy sectors. Ethiopia is also a pioneering Least Developed Country country in the fight against climate change. As early as 2010, with the support of GGGI (Global Green Growth Institute),

Ethiopia adopted a Climate Resilient and Green Economy Strategy dealing with both adaptation and mitigation. In 2015, the Ethiopian government adopted ambitious objectives in its NDC aiming in particular to reduce GHG emissions to 64% by 2030, compared to BAU (business as usual) scenario, which was raised to 69% in its 2021 updated NDC.

In 2020, the Ethiopian government requested support from GGGI to develop its Low Carbon and Resilient Development Strategy (LT-LEDS) in the aim to communicate it to UNFCCC in 2022.
The project, supported by the 2050 Facility, consists of supporting the whole process, from the establishment of the institutional organization to the development of the final LT-LEDS document and its approval by the government, while ensuring government ownership and stakeholder engagement, through:
- the establishment of thematic groups (5 sectoral and 2 cross-cutting groups) comprising of staff from line ministries and Planning Ministry (responsible for Environment and Climate), and experts from GGGI and external experts;
- the conduct of national workshops at the various stages of the process for the consultation and participation of stakeholders, and steering committee sessions chaired by the Planning Ministry;
- capacity building supports targeted on sector modeling (establishment of BAU scenario and mitigation scenario), macroeconomic modeling (GEM, Green Economic Model), and the incorporation of adaptation;
- the prioritization of investments based on a cost-benefit analysis of the actions identified, for the planning of investments;
- the identification of potential sources of financing for the implementation of the LT-LEDS, in particular through the mobilization of climate finance;
- and finally recommendations for the establishment of a monitoring and evaluation system for the implementation of the LT-LEDS.

  • Energy and emissions for a desired quality of life for all

In order to meet the SDGs and its NDC, India needs strategic planning to disentangle the achievement of development goals from its dependence on fossil fuels. From 2020 to 2021, the 2050 Facility funded studies made by the Center for Study of Science, Technology and Policy (CSTEP, one of South Asia's most influential think tanks) that examined the following research questions:
- What would be the implications for India in terms of materials, energy and emissions if it were to achieve a desired standard of living for all? 
- How can the desired standard of living for all be quantified in terms of national development goals?
- To what extent can India's future energy needs be met by non-fossil fuel sources to be consistent with global aspirations to limit warming to below 1.5°C?
These questions are addressed at the final publication: Energy and Emissions Implications for a Desired Quality of Life in India via SAFARI (2021).

The results allowed to: develop the system dynamics simulation model termed 'Sustainable Alternative Futures for India' (SAFARI) that serves as a test bed for policy evaluation, suggesting options around climate change resilience and long-term strategies consistent with the Paris Agreement for India; enrich the debate on India's future trajectories and provide critical inputs to India's 2050 strategy; create a knowledge base for informed discussions on supply strategies, alternative materials and fuels, technologies, etc.

Two articles focusing on urban and food (in)security implications were also produced with 2050 Facility support: Sustainable Alternative Futures for Urban India: The Resource, Energy, and Emissions Implications of Urban Form Scenarios and Sustainable Alternative Futures for Agriculture in India: The Energy, Emissions, and Resource Implications.

  • Study on Energy Efficiency as Part of a Low-carbon Transition Initiative

Indonesia's national energy policy aims to reduce the country's energy intensity by 1% per year until 2025. The Indonesian Ministry of Planning aims to further develop its modeling tools to implement a renewed and more ambitious policy on energy efficiency, which takes into consideration financial incentives and an appropriate regulatory framework. It also requires up-to-date data to set more realistic energy efficiency targets.

Therefore, the 2050 Facility is supporting the development of a model to produce recommendations for sector-wide policies, regulation and investment, and will assist in drafting an energy efficiency action plan for the industrial sector.

  • Support to develop the “2050 vision” of the Mauritian economy, low carbon and resilient to climate change impacts

The technical assistance financed by the 2050 Facility supports the Mauritian authorities in developing long-term decarbonization and adaptation pathways in order to constitute a “2050 vision” of both the target to achieve and the transitions required. The ambition is to allow, as part of the periodic review of the National Determined Contribution (NDC), to regularly enhance Mauritius' ambitions and to allow the country to present a long-term strategy to the UNFCCC Secretariat by 2025. 

Key sectors will be addressed for the reduction of GHG emissions (energy and transport), particularly country’s most vulnerable sectors to the effects of climate change such as agriculture and tourism.

The project was designed with line ministries, under the aegis of the Ministry of Environment, Solid Waste Management and Climate Change (MoESWMCC) that will ensure local project management and will be strengthened in its strategic steering, project coordination and financial execution functions

The objective in each of the sectors is to create a framework to allow multi-stakeholder dialogue on the long-term impacts of climate change and the possible mitigation and adaptation pathways, as well as to facilitate the emergence of a broad consensus on long-term objectives, to build the capacity of ministries and key stakeholders, and finally to develop long-term climate scenarios that might contribute in the future to a LT-LEDS design.

  • Building a resilience trajectory for municipalities most vulnerable to climate change

In the context of its NDC, of which adaptation is a very important part, Mexico has committed to reducing by 50% the number of municipalities in a situation of high vulnerability to climate change, to implement actions for the protection and restoration of ecosystems and to achieve zero deforestation, and to generate a system for the prevention of extreme hydro meteorological events throughout the country. Such ambition requires a long-term effort.

The Mexican government has identified 319 municipalities that are particularly vulnerable to climate change, which represents about a quarter of the national population. In this context, the 2050 Facility is helping the country to support, as a first step, five south priority municipalities located in the Oaxaca region for reducting climate vulnerability over the long term. 

The project aims to support Mexico in achieving its adaptation goals at the municipal level, with a focus on adaptation planning (priorities, investments) in the most vulnerable cities to climate change.

AFD will also mobilize the 2050 Facility to prepare Mexican’s national circular economy strategy very soon.

  • Prospective Study on Climate Change Adaptation Scenarios for 2050

The 2050 Facility is supporting the Moroccan Ministry of Economy and Finance in analyzing the impact of different climate scenarios on the Moroccan economy through the development of a GEMMES model, (modeling tool developed by AFD), adapted to the country context. The purpose of this study is to examine the viability of the irrigation-based agricultural development model in light of the increasing aridity in the region over the last few decades.

More generally, this modeling support will provide the country with a new tool to inform the development of its economic policy, by adopting a long-term perspective. This project is complementary to the support provided by the 2050 Pathways Platform to assist Morocco with the development of its long-term strategy.

  • Support for the formulation of the long-term low-emissions development strategy (LT-LEDS)

The Kingdom of Morocco prepares a Low Carbon National Strategy for 2050 (LT-LEDS Morocco 2050), a plan considering country’s contribution to the global goals of limiting temperature increases below 2°C and achieving zero net greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the second half of the century. 

The LT-LEDS aims to create a multi-sectoral decarbonization strategy until 2050 in line with the vision of the New Development Model (NDM).

With the support of the international alliance NDC Partnership, through its Programme for Strengthening Climate Action (CAEP), the organization 2050 Pathways Platform (“P2050”) has accompanied the Environment Department of the Ministry of Energy, Mines and Environment of the Kingdom of Morocco in the elaboration of a "Vision Maroc 2050". This vision was communicated to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in 2021, is the basis for efforts to develop a long-term quantitative low-GHG development strategy backed by long-term sector decarbonization plans.

The Ministry of Mines, Energy and the Environment asked AFD to assist it in modelling scenarios of low long-term emissions in Morocco, developing a quantitative LT-LEDS, developing sector plans for decarbonization, and providing training to stakeholders. This work will be carried out in consultation with various Moroccan partners and other stakeholders that will be organized according to a governance scheme defined by the Kingdom and coordinated by P2050.

  • Modeling territorial dynamics for sustainable land management (LANDSIM tool)

In Mozambique, the land sector (forestry, land use change and agriculture) is the main emitting sector. However, the country has set ambitious emission reduction targets for this sector, with many supporting projects. Nevertheless, significant discrepancies in GHG estimates exist, highlighting the need for the country to strengthen its methodological capacity in this area.

The 2050 Facility finance the strengthening of the local expertise modeling and analysis unit of territorial dynamics on the land sector within the Mozambican institutions in charge (The National Fund for Sustainable Development - FNDS and Universities), by developing the LANDSIM prototype tool (spatialized data and dynamics simulations). 

The project will allow:
- To continue the development of the LANDSIM prototype model to build the LUCCIA (Land Use and Climate Change Impact Assessment) tool by integrating new data and operationalizing it in order to assess and guide investments impacting land use dynamics through spatial-temporal simulations.
- To calibrate LUCCIA with one case study on a region.
- To apply the model at the national scale to support the development of a low-carbon and resilient pathway for the AFOLU sector (in accordance with the work in progress of the Long Term Strategy).
- To strengthen national capacities in terms of modeling and analysis of territorial dynamics for a low-carbon and resilient development pathway.

  • Scientific and technical support to the government to fight against drought

Namibia is the driest country in Southern Africa. In order to prepare country’s management of increasingly critical droughts due to climate change, the 2050 Facility finance training of line ministries and the development of documents that can be directly interpreted for integrated water resources management decisions.

Capacity building is provide by:
- A training project, adapted to the needs of the Namibian administration, aiming to increase technicians, hydrogeologists, geomatics engineers, geochemists skills from Ministries of Agriculture, Water and Territorial Reform and Ministry of Environment, Forestry and Tourism;
- Participation in an applied research project led by the French Bureau of Geological and Mining Research (BRGM) and local scientists (such as the Geological Service of Namibia) aimed at identifying land suitable for underground artificial storage and recharge water projects.

BRGM also proposes to contribute to the ongoing reflection on planning and management of drought episodes by developing a water resource planning map for the Omusati and Kunene Provinces to which the Namibian government pays particular attention given its physical and socio-economic situation.

  • Modeling of GHG Emissions

The 2050 Facility is mobilized in the continuation of a service funded by AFD and GIZ in 2016 and 2017 when Enerdata developed a tool to model Pakistan energy GHG emissions.

The objective of this new support financed by the Facility 2050 planned between 2020 and 2022 to the Ministry of Climate Change (MoCC) is to complete, beyond the energy sector, the modeling of GHG emissions of the sectors of agriculture, forests and land use, It is not yet covered or unclear by the existing model. This support also aims to develop reduction scenarios either that are in line with the public policies currently under consideration, or which set goals that are even more ambitious. Ultimately, analysis made by MoCC with ENERDATA and Solagro technical assistance will help to identify potential strategies for GHG reduction by sector and to establish their cost.

  • Future climate impacts and adaptation plans using local ecological knowledge

The Republic of Vanuatu, an archipelago of more than 80 islands located in Melanesia in the South Pacific Ocean, is one of the four least developed countries (LDCs) in Oceania and one of the most vulnerable countries to climate change on a global scale. 
The 2050 Facility finance Météo France, the French Institute of Research for Development (IRD), to facilitate the formulation of climate change adaptation plans in Vanuatu, New Caledonia, French Polynesia and Wallis and Futuna, and to increase their resilience through the development of new, reliable and accurate future climate data (up to 2100), not yet available.

The technical assistance will produce high-resolution projections of future climate over the South Pacific (at a scale of 20 km, then 2 km), to capture climate evolution on the high islands. Such unprecedented data will provide decision-makers with analyses of the impact of climate disruption in various sectors such as water resources, agriculture or the development of vector-borne diseases to guide local public policies. The development of adaptation plans will include collection of traditional knowledge, especially local ecological knowledge, so that it can be valued and transmitted between generations.

  • Adaptation components of Vanuatu Long Term Low Emissions Development Strategy (LT-LEDS)

The objective of this project financed by the 2050 Facility is to integrate climate change adaptation into Vanuatu´s Long Term Low Emissions Development Strategy (LT-LEDS), currently being developed with technical assistance from Global Green Growth Institute (GGGI). 

This support seeks to improve how policy makers approach synergies and trade-offs between mitigation and adaptation. The lessons learned in Vanuatu may be applicable for other Small Island Developing States (SIDS), particularly in the Pacific.

The proposed project meets the growing global need to systematically integrate climate adaptation into low emission development planning and implementation processes, particularly in the context of vulnerable countries and SIDS. At present, there is a lack of a systematic approach or framework to incorporate climate adaptation into LT-LEDS. To identify synergies and conflicts between mitigation and adaptation policies and actions, could help to improve decision-making of low-carbon and climate-resilient development strategies, planning and implementation Paris Agreement aligned.

  • Analysis of the Socio-economic Impacts of Climate Change and Medium- and Long-term Adaptation Strategies 

Vietnam is one of the five countries in the world most vulnerable to climate change. In light of this, AFD has developed the GEMMES modeling tool to produce an integrated study of the socio-economic impacts of climate change and potential adaptation strategies, for the country to construct a resilient development trajectory. This project is being implemented in collaboration with the Climate Change Directorate of the Vietnamese Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment and the IRD (French National Research Institute for Sustainable Development). 

  • Integrating climate change into national socio-economic development plans

AFD supports Vietnam on its low-carbon and resilient development pathway. AFD deploys in the country a range of “climate” activities that are among the largest of all its intervention countries. Ministry of Planning received support from the 2050 Facility to integrate climate change issues into Vietnamese 2021-2030 socio-economic strategy papers, its 2021-2025 development plan, and the 2021-2025 medium-term investment plan. The following sectors with significant integration potential for climate change adaptation and mitigation were involved: industry and trade, agriculture and forestry, construction, transport, water resources management and environment.

As a result, Viet Nam’s new 2021-2030 Socio-Economic Development Strategy (SEDS) promulgated in June 2021 states, as one of its main objectives, that “Viet Nam will reduce its total greenhouse gas emissions by 9% compared to the national BAU, equivalent to 83.9 million CO2eq tonnes using domestic resources by 2030.” 

Finally, Viet Nam’s 2021-2025 socio-economic development plan (SEDP) for the first five years of the next SEDS implementation includes an obligation for the Vietnamese Ministry of Environment and Natural Resources (MoNRE) Monitor the overall goal of reducing greenhouse gas emissions, and focus primarily on climate change adaptation actions. The support enabled the government to ensure that its national regulatory corpus is consistent with its international climate commitments.

  • Assessing implementation of the Support Program to Respond to Climate change (SP-RCC) and proposing recommendations for development of NDC-ISP

In view of implementing its international commitments on reducing GHG emissions as stated in the 2020 NDC, Vietnam desires to establish an effective coordination mechanism with the national steering committee for climate commitments.

Complementary to completed and ongoing supports, the 2050 Facility finance the Vietnamese Institute of Strategy and Policy on Natural Resources and Environment (ISPONRE) study that will evaluate all support programs to respond to climate change (SP-RCC) from 2009 to 2020. Moreover, the study aims to produce recommendations on an effective roadmap, on a coordination mechanism, on monitoring and reporting, as well as resource mobilization for achieving national climate goals.

Multiple countries in Africa
  • Deep Decarbonization Pathways 

The DDP initiative led by IDDRI ims to support governments and non-state actors in developing decarbonization scenarios. The 2050 Facility is providing assistance to two African countries: Nigeria and Senegal, where the broader aim is to establish development pathways that address urgent short-term economic, social and environmental issues while meeting resilient low-carbon climate goals at long-term.