Transitioning to low-carbon and resilient development by 2050

The 2050 Facility

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The 2050 Facility, AFD
To provide support for some 30 of the highest emitting and most vulnerable developing countries in their transition to a low-carbon and resilient development model, AFD has created a dedicated facility: the 2050 Facility.
Facilité 2050

 

The Paris Agreement invites all Parties to establish and communicate long-term low greenhouse gas (GHG) emission development strategies. Each strategy should include a pathway to be implemented by the second half of the century which takes into account the institutional, economic, financial, technological and social changes needed to achieve sustainable, low-carbon development in a more resilient environment.

The aim of the 2050 Facility, set up in 2018 as part of France’s commitments at the One Planet Summit in Paris, is to support AFD's partner countries in the implementation of this pathway.

This new facility, which has received €30 million in the form of grants, has been developed by AFD to strengthen climate policy dialog through the financing of studies and capacity-building activities.

Its creation marks the launch of a multi-year, cooperative approach involving some 30 countries which are being supported by AFD in their transition strategies, in line with the objectives set by the Paris Agreement;

Context

The 2050 Facility, AFD
Advancing Development Strategies in Line with the Fight against Climate Change

The effects of global warming (rising sea levels, droughts, floods and weather-related disasters) are already visible today, posing new risks to the development of the poorest countries and undermining the socio-economic progress made in recent decades. 

It is often because many governments are not capable of quantifying the extent of future impacts that they are less willing to establish and finance development policies tailored to these new challenges. 

Nevertheless, it is essential that the effects of global warming are mitigated, by reducing our GHG emissions as quickly as possible. The highest emitting countries must make a marked effort to achieve this, using the resources at their disposal as well as those contributed by the international community.

For their part, stakeholders in the development sector must work to raise awareness of climate issues among decision-makers at all levels, by raising financing for climate change adaptation and GHG-emission reduction policies in the countries of intervention, particularly with regard to long-term investment projects (energy, agriculture, forestry and other land use, transport, buildings, industry and land use planning).
 

Nationally Determined Contributions and Long-term Strategies: Adopting an Integrated Approach

Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) are a requirement of the Paris Agreement. Each country must provide regular updates on the actions taken to reduce its GHG emissions. This is the main purpose of the climate plans, which are regularly reviewed. They should provide evidence of the efforts made by each country to keep the rise in global warming well below 2°C, and of more sustained efforts to limit this increase to 1.5°C relative to pre-industrial levels. 

Defining each country’s NDCs is mandatory, but the medium-term target set for their implementation by 2030 does not, in most cases, allow for an in-depth review of the development models already being followed. Nor does the tight deadline allow these objectives to be sufficiently ambitious to be fully aligned with the Paris Agreement. 

Conversely, the development of long-term strategies (LTS) enables various decarbonization scenarios to be explored for individual countries, helping in the drafting of shorter-term decisions, including those relating to the revised NDC targets. LTSs thus provide an opportunity for governments to forecast the budgetary and financial costs of their initiatives and to identify the policy reforms and priority investments required to build toward a resilient, low-carbon future. They also serve as a valuable guide for finance and development players who want to support sustainable and inclusive development. 

As important as an LTS may be, there is scope for improvement. Specifically, these strategies should take into account the Sustainable Development Goals more comprehensively at the design phase. All stakeholders should be involved at each stage of the country’s development to ensure that everyone has a better understanding of the transformations required, which could be the subject of a new social contract.

The AFD solution

The 2050 Facility, AFD

The purpose of the 2050 Facility is to support technical cooperation and capacity-building activities. To this end, it finances studies aiming to provide recommendations to inform strategic thinking in countries committed to developing long-term strategies. The Facility can assist in the definition of sector-wide goals, and/or the redefinition of public policies to drive change, and/or the implementation of strategies in sectors with major climate challenges.

Ownership of the process is ensured through institution-based support, the participation of institutions in partner countries such as government ministries, universities, research centers, and think tanks, as well as by consulting with the different stakeholders and various actors (public and private sectors, civil society) to develop plans and programs, and share results.

There are many opportunities for intervention which may involve: 

  • macroeconomic modeling of the transition, specifically, through the use of the AFD GEMMES model
  • energy transition: sector-wide modeling of energy pathways, capacity building in relation to modeling tools; modeling and optimization of electrical power systems; the macroeconomic impacts of energy transition, transition risks
  • mobility and urban development: roadmap for the decarbonization of the sector, long-term transport plan, land use planning, mobility policies, urban development policies, support for the integration of climate policies
  • ecological transition and natural resources: long-term strategies for the protection and management of forest resources, water resources in their multiple uses, rural development, land use planning, meeting food requirements
  • demographic and social transition: impact assessment and policy development for adaptive social protection, redeployment models for resources used to subsidize fossil fuels, vocational training and just transition.

The projects

The 2050 Facility, AFD
Algeria
  • Prospective Study of Energy Transition Scenarios until 2050

Algeria is one of the main exporters of gas in the world, with an economic model that is heavily dependent on hydrocarbons. Committed to reducing its GHG emissions by 7% to 22% by 2030, the Algerian Ministry of Energy has asked the 2050 Facility to support a cooperative technical project to model its energy transition and development pathway until 2050. 

Brazil
  • Support for the creation of low-carbon and resilient development trajectories in Ceara and Nordeste

The semi-arid region of the Brazilian Nordeste, and in particular the State of Ceará, is facing a severe multi-year drought which, combined with the increasing needs in metropolitan areas, has placed the issue of water at the center of the national political agenda. In this context, the 2050 Facility's support consists of providing the State of Ceará, through its Meteorology and Water Resources Foundation (FUNCEME), with a grant for the creation of sustainable development trajectories that limit the carbon footprint.     

The project will support FUNCEME and its partners in research and capacity building activities along three main lines: analysis of the impacts of climate change on the water/energy/agriculture nexus and assessment of the effects of public policies; identification of agricultural development trajectories with lower-emission practices, with a view to agro-ecological transition; and capacity building for water sector institutions to develop low-emission instruments and inclusive development paths.

Burkina Faso
  • Support for the formulation of a long-term low-carbon and resilient development strategy

Funding has been granted to the Ministry of the Environment, Green Economy and Climate Change of Burkina Faso to support the authorities in the process of formulating a Long Term - Low Emission Development Strategy (LT-LEDS).

Among the expected effects: the strengthening of dialogue on climate/development issues in Burkina Faso, particularly in sectors that are strategic for AFD (rural development, energy). Burkina Faso would be one of the few countries in West Africa to develop a long-term strategy. The success of the exercise could encourage its neighbors to do the same.

Cambodia
  • Modelling Energy Transition Scenarios to 2050 

The Cambodian economy is growing rapidly and the demand for electricity is booming: analyses forecast an average increase of 15% per year until 2040. The country has set out to meet several goals, i.e. to ensure affordable access to electricity for all, obtain long-term energy security and independence, all the while respecting the Paris Agreement. This project, in cooperation with the Ministry of Economy and Finance, is intended to develop models for energy transition scenarios to 2050 in support of decision making and policy dialogue in the energy sector. 

China
  • Public Policy Dialog on the Energy Transition Pathway

The 2050 Facility is supporting the implementation of public policy dialog, launched by the International Energy Agency (IEA) in collaboration with the Chinese authorities, by financing studies that aim to inform the development of a long-term strategy, the design of a national Emissions Trading System (ETS) and the optimization of the electrical power system with a view to integrating more intermittent renewable energies into the grid. 

Colombia
  • Development of the 2050 Strategy for Low-carbon and Resilient Development

The 2050 Facility is assisting the Colombian Ministry of Environment and Sustainable Development with various activities (studies, stakeholder consultations, consultant support), which should culminate in the publication of its long-term strategy. This strategy will constitute the country's roadmap for the transition of its economy towards decarbonization, while integrating climate change adaptation issues and disaster risk management. This project is being implemented by Expertise France

  • Understanding the impact of climate transition risk on the Colombian economy and financial system

The 2050 Facility funded a study to demonstrate to Colombian governments, private actors, and civil society stakeholders the potential negative impacts of low-carbon transitions on the Colombian economy and financial system, if not properly managed. The microeconomic analysis conducted by the Climate Policy Initiative (CPI) and the University of Los Andes focuses on the impact on Colombia's coal and oil mining activities, which account for 60% of the country's exports.

The study highlights the consequences for the stability of the financial system, the balance of public finances and the impact on workers, communities, companies and territories particularly exposed. It also suggests a series of recommendations to mitigate these risks and their impacts and accelerate the low-carbon transition. 

COSTA RICA
  • Support for the organization, management and steering of Costa Rica's National Decarbonization Plan

On February 24, 2019, the government of Carlos Alvarado, elected 10 months earlier, presented its National Decarbonization Plan (NDP), which aims to make Costa Rica a carbon neutral country by 2050. This NDP was filed with the UNFCCC in December 2019 as a long-term strategy under the Paris Agreement. AFD and IDB are financially and technically supporting the implementation of the NDP as part of a dialogue with the State of Costa Rica focusing on the priority areas of the NDP (transport, AFOLU sector - Agriculture, forestry and other land uses) and on cross-cutting climate governance topics such as the institutional, regulatory and financial framework. 

In this context, the project supported by the 2050 Facility aims to provide technical cooperation support to help institutions structure themselves and implement the tools necessary to implement the decarbonization plan in the long term: organizational support to the Ministry of Environment and Energy and especially to the unit in charge of the fight against climate change, consolidation of the Measurement/Notification/Verification (MNV) mechanism created in September 2019 to accompany the implementation of the NDP at the sectoral level and its SINAMECC platform, development of a mechanism to monitor the results of the NDP, capacity building and support to the climate change unit of the Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock (MAG). 

Côte d'Ivoire
  • Development of a modeling tool to support the definition of the energy transition strategy for 2050

As part of the electricity challenge of Côte d'Ivoire by 2050, which consists in reconciling economic development and climate commitments, the objectives of the support are: 
- To produce decision support tools enabling the Ministry of Mines, Petroleum and Energy (MMPE) to take into account the challenges of fighting poverty and climate change in its energy transition policy.
-To strengthen national capacities (notably MMPE, CI-ENERGIES, Institut National Polytechnique Felix Houphouët-Boigny and Cellule d'Analyse de Politiques Economiques du Cires- CAPEC) in energy sector modeling and in understanding the links between the energy transition trajectory, poverty reduction and climate change.
-To develop a model of the energy sector coupled with a macroeconomic model allowing the creation of different energy transition scenarios with their impacts on the main macroeconomic indicators (employment, GDP, trade balance, consumption, investment) and in terms of fight against poverty and climate change. 

ETHIOPIA
  • Support to the formulation of the Long Term Low Carbon and Resilient Development Strategy (LT-LEDS)

Ethiopia is highly vulnerable to the adverse impacts of climate change, with agriculture, water and energy being the most climate sensitive sectors. 

Since 2010, Ethiopia has been committed to fight climate change with the adoption of the Climate Resilient Green Economy Strategy for addressing both climate change adaptation and mitigation. In 2015, within the scope of the Paris Agreement, the Government of Ethiopia took the initiative to release an ambitious Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) towards reducing its Green House Gas emissions by 64%, compared to the business-as-usual (BAU) scenario, by 2030. In July 2021, Ethiopia released an updated NDC with a clear progression in ambition, with 69% emission reduction target by 2030 from BAU.

Following the call from Paris Agreement, the Government of Ethiopia (GoE) has formulated a request for support to develop its long term low emission and resilient development strategy (LT-LEDS).

This project supports the GoE to develop its LT-LEDS (2050 horizon) document for submission to the UNFCCC in 2022.  The project will notably 
- Identify the potential evolution of specific sectors  in a Business-As-Usual (BAU) scenario, the main drivers of emissions and their trends, and the key demand drivers factors
- Identify technically, politically and economically feasible low-carbon development options that have potential to mitigate GHG emissions growth and enhance sinks and country’s resilience in close consultation with stakeholders
- Draft the long term vision with strategic climate and development objectives, and possible pathway for its implementation. 
- Assess  the cost of the implementation of the pathway and potential financing options and instruments of the low carbon options based on the investment requirements,
- Assess the potential for gender equality, women’s empowerment, social inclusion and poverty alleviation in the proposed low-carbon options, 
- Suggest policy options and an implementation action plan that can help to realize the mitigation potential quantified

India
  • Energy and emissions for a desired quality of life for all

In order to meet the SDGs and its climate change NDCs, India needs strategic planning to decouple the achievement of development goals from its dependence on fossil fuels.

The 2050 Facility is funding a study by the Center for Study of Science, Technology and Policy (CSTEP, one of South Asia's most influential think tanks) that examines the following research questions: What would be the implications for India in terms of materials, energy and emissions if it were to achieve a desired standard of living for all? How can the desired standard of living for all be quantified in terms of national development goals? To what extent can India's future energy needs be met by non-fossil fuel sources to be consistent with global aspirations to limit warming to below 1.50°C?

The results will primarily allow to: develop a model that serves as a test bed for policy evaluation, suggesting options around climate change resilience and long-term strategies consistent with the Paris Agreement for India; enrich the debate on India's future trajectories and provide critical inputs to India's 2050 strategy; create a knowledge base for informed discussions on supply strategies, alternative materials and fuels, technologies, etc.

Indonesia
  • Study on Energy Efficiency as Part of a Low-carbon Transition Initiative

Indonesia's national energy policy aims to reduce the country's energy intensity by 1% per year until 2025. The Indonesian Ministry for Planning is developing its modeling tools to implement a renewed and more ambitious policy on energy efficiency, which takes into consideration financial incentives and a more appropriate regulatory framework. It also requires up-to-date data to set more realistic energy efficiency targets.

The 2050 Facility is supporting the development of a model to produce recommendations for sector-wide policies, regulation and investment, and will help in the drafting of an energy efficiency action plan for the industrial sector.

Mexico
  • Building a resilience trajectory for municipalities most vulnerable to climate change

In the context of its NDC, of which adaptation is a very important part, Mexico has committed to reducing by 50% the number of municipalities in a situation of high vulnerability to climate change, to implement actions for the protection and restoration of ecosystems and to achieve zero deforestation, and to generate a system for the prevention of extreme hydrometeorological events throughout the country. An ambition that requires a long-term effort.

The Mexican government has identified 319 municipalities that are particularly vulnerable to climate change, which represents about a quarter of the national population. In this context, the 2050 Facility is helping them to support, as a first step, at least ten priority municipalities in the reduction of climate vulnerability over the long term. 

The project aims to support Mexico in achieving its adaptation goals at the municipal level, with a focus on adaptation planning (priorities, investments) in the cities most vulnerable to climate change.

Morocco
  • Prospective Study on Climate Change Adaptation Scenarios for 2050

The 2050 Facility is supporting the Moroccan Ministry of Economy and Finance in analyzing the impact of different climate scenarios on the Moroccan economy through the development of a GEMMES model, (modeling tool developed by AFD), adapted to the  country context. The purpose of this study is to examine the viability of the irrigation-based agricultural development model in light of the increasing aridity in the region over the last few decades.

More generally, this modeling support will provide the country with a new tool to inform the development of its economic policy, by adopting a long-term perspective. This project is complementary to the support provided by the 2050 Pathways Platform to assist Morocco with the development of its long-term strategy. 

MOZAMBIQUE
  • Modeling territorial dynamics for sustainable land management (LANDSIM tool)

The land sector (forestry, land use change and agriculture) is the main emission factor in Mozambique, and ambitious emission reduction targets are set for this sector, with many supporting projects. However, significant discrepancies in GHG estimates exist between sources, highlighting the need for the country to strengthen its methodological capacity in this area.

The project aims at creating a local expertise pole in modeling and analysis of territorial dynamics on the land sector within the Mozambican institutions in charge (FNDS and Universities), by developing the prototype tool LANDSIM (spatialized data and dynamics simulations). 

The project will allow (i) to continue the development of the LANDSIM prototype to build the LUCCIA (Land Use and Climate Change Impact Assessment) tool by integrating new data and operationalizing it so that it becomes a spatiotemporal simulation tool allowing to assess and guide investments impacting the evolution of land use; (ii) to calibrate LUCCIA with the case study on a region; (iii) to use it on a national scale to support the development of a low-carbon and resilient trajectory for the AFOLU sector (in connection with the work of the Long Term Strategy underway); (iv) and to strengthen national capacities in terms of modeling and analysis of territorial dynamics for a low-carbon and resilient development trajectory.

Namibia
  • Scientific and technical support to the government to fight against drought

Namibia is the driest country in Southern Africa. In order to better prepare the country for the management of increasingly critical droughts, the 2050 Facility focuses on the training of managers and the development of simple documents that can be directly interpreted for integrated water resources management decisions.

Skills development is proposed in the form of a comprehensive training project, adapted to the needs of the Namibian administration, aiming to increase the skills of the teams of the ministries concerned (technicians, hydrogeologists, geomaticians, geochemists, etc.) and participation in an applied research project led by the Bureau de recherches géologiques et minières (BRGM) and local scientific actors (such as the Geological Survey of Namibia) aimed at identifying land suitable for underground storage projects by artificial recharge.

BRGM also proposes to contribute to the ongoing reflection on planning and management of drought episodes by developing a water resources planning map for the Omusati and Kunene Provinces to which the Namibian government seems to pay particular attention.

Pakistan
  • Modeling of GHG Emissions

Support is being provided to the Ministry of Climate Change (MoCC) in order to develop comprehensive modeling of the country's GHG emissions, which goes beyond the energy sector. The agriculture, forestry and land-use sectors, which are not yet covered by the existing model, will be included. This support project also aims to develop a set of reduction scenarios that are either in line with the public policies currently under consideration, or which set even more ambitious goals. Ultimately, the analysis will help to identify potential strategies for GHG reduction by sector and establish their cost. 

Vanuatu
  • Future climate impacts and adaptation plans using local ecological knowledge

The Republic of Vanuatu, an archipelago of more than 80 islands located in the South Pacific Ocean in Melanesia, is one of the four least developed countries (LDCs) in Oceania and one of the most vulnerable countries to the climate threat on a global scale. 

The Facility 2050 project, led by Météo France, the Institute of Research for Development (IRD) and AFD, aims to facilitate the formulation of climate change adaptation plans in Vanuatu, New Caledonia, French Polynesia and Wallis and Futuna, and to increase their resilience through the development of new, reliable and accurate future climate data (by 2100), which do not exist to date.

The aim is to produce high-resolution projections of future climate over the South Pacific at a scale of 20 km, then 2 km, to capture the evolution of climate on the high islands. Such unprecedented data will provide decision-makers with analyses of the impact of climate disruption in various sectors such as water resources, agriculture or the development of vector-borne diseases to guide local public policies. The development of adaptation plans will include a step to collect traditional knowledge, especially local ecological knowledge, so that it can be valued and transmitted.

Vietnam
  • Analysis of the Socio-economic Impacts of Climate Change and Medium- and Long-term Adaptation Strategies 

Vietnam is one of the five countries in the world most vulnerable to climate change. In light of this, AFD has developed the GEMMES modeling tool to produce an integrated study of the socio-economic impacts of climate change and potential adaptation strategies, for the country to construct a resilient development trajectory. This project is being implemented in collaboration with the Climate Change Directorate of the Vietnamese Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment and the IRD (French National Research Institute for Sustainable Development). 

In addition, the 2050 Facility also supports the Ministry of Planning and Investment in integrating climate issues into its strategies and its socio-economic development plan. 

Multiple countries in Africa
  • Deep Decarbonization Pathways 

The DDP initiative led by IDDRI aims to support governments and non-state actors in developing decarbonization scenarios. The 2050 Facility is planning to provide assistance in African countries (e.g. Nigeria, Senegal: other countries to be determined) where the decision has been made to integrate low-carbon and resilience climate goals into their policies from the outset. The broader aim is to establish development pathways that address urgent short-term economic, social and environmental issues while meeting long-term needs.