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Cash transfers and economic recovery: The effect of South Africa’s Covid-19 grant on productive economic activ...
The fear that cash transfer programs (or social grants) can discourage labor market participation is common among policymakers locally and around the world, including in South Africa. To refute or con...
Research project
Measuring stimulus effects on the South African economy
Does the use of stimulus programs and social grants by beneficiaries have an impact on the South African economy? Conducted by Infusion Knowledge as part of the Extension of the EU-AFD Research Facili...
Research project
The local economic development effects of income transfers in South Africa
What have been the impacts of the Covid-19 national stimulus package's social assistance on local economies and informal sector workers in South Africa? The Extension of the EU-AFD Research Facility o...
Research project
Data Analytics for a Just Transition. Distributional Impacts of Environmental Policies (Indonesia)
Indonesia’s commitment to the Paris Agreement has placed carbon pricing through taxes and emissions trading at the center of its climate policy. These instruments are designed to reduce greenhouse gas...
Publication
MacroDev - Semestrial Panorama 2023 #2
Since the last edition of our publication MacroDev Semestrial in February 2023, international economic developments have remained eventful and intense, against the backdrop of the continued global geo...
Publication
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Vietnam at a crossroads: avoiding the middle-income trap while addressing climate challenges
Following three decades of strong growth (7% on average) which enabled the country to eradicate extreme poverty and reach middle-income status, Vietnam continues to offer highly attractive prospects....
Publication
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MacroDev - Semestrial Panorama 2024 #1
Three decades ago, it was believed that the end of the (first) Cold War would herald the “end of history” and the advent of economic globalization dominated by multinational companies, relegating gove...
Publication
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MacroDev - Semestrial Panorama 2024 #2
2024 was supposed to be a year of rate cuts, ending with a question mark over the US elections which would reopen the scenarios for 2025… Yet, firstly, inflation is struggling to leave the stage and g...
Publication
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MacroDev - Semestrial Panorama 2025 #1
As we move into 2025, the legitimacy of the world order inherited from the fall of the Iron Curtain is confronted more than ever with the “ambivalent superpower” of the United States, already describe...
Publication
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Colombia: Squaring energy transition and fiscal credibility to transform the economy
Despite a robust institutional framework and a broadly sound policy mix, Colombia’s economic model is running out of steam. For over a decade, since the end of the commodities supercycle,growth has be...
Publication
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Semestrial panorama 2025#2 - Wayfinding in troubled waters
By their scale and volatility, and even if their application has been temporarily limited, the Trump administration's announcements have begun to destabilize the global economy. Indeed, in addition to...
Publication
Hard Times for Developing Countries: Africa’s Financing Needs in Question
Semestrial Panoramas are special issues of the MacroDev series written by AFD analysts; They present a synthesis of macronomic et socioeconomic analyses of emerging and developing countries. In additi...
Publication
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Kosovo: The Challenges of Building the Growth Model
A small country in the Western Balkans, Kosovo unilaterally declared its independence from Serbia in 2008. It has since strengthened its independence and built its sovereignty, resulting in a gradual...
Publication
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Côte d’Ivoire - Macro-financial resilience and pursuit of an emerging ambition
Since emerging from its “lost decade” (2000-2010), Côte d'Ivoire has enjoyed strong economic growth (+7.2% since 2012). Resilient in the face of successive external shocks, it has confirmed its positi...
Publication
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Cuba: a succession of economic and financial crises amid the weakening of the Cuban model
Cuba’s economic model, characterized by low productivity and a lack of diversification, is no longer sustainable. The country is facing an economic, social, and energy crisis that rivals the aftermath...
Publication
Conflict prediction using Kernel density estimation
Being able to assess conflict risk at local level is crucial for preventing political violence or mitigating its consequences. This paper develops a new approach for predicting the timing and location...
Publication
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Intellectual Property Rights Protection and Trade: An Empirical Analysis
The paper proposes an empirical analysis of the determinants of the adoption of intellectual property rights (IPR) and their impact on innovation in manufacturing. The analysis is conducted with panel...
Publication
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Public debt in developping countries with Maxime Terrieux
Since the late 1990s, several developing countries have benefited from public debt relief. Yet by early 2020, half of the poor countries had reached a high risk or even already a situation of public d...
Publication
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Debt sustainability in Africa: state of play and future challenges
Almost fifteen years after the last debt relief initiatives were implemented by the international community, some African countries have either recently defaulted on their public debt, subscribed to t...
Publication
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Rendemic uncertainties in developing countries: Issues arising from an increased interdependence between banks...
An increased recourse to financing from the domestic banking sector has proved to be an important source of resilience for many developing countries in their efforts to face expenditures generated by...
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