Supporting Cambodia in modelling energy transition scenarios to 2050

In the context of its cooperation with the General Department of Policy at the Ministry of Economy and Finance (MEF) and with the support of the 2050 Facility[1] to support long-term low carbon development trajectories, AFD finances a programme entitled “Energy Sector Modelling Tool for the Ministry of Economy and Finance of the Royal Government of Cambodia”. The project was launched in January, 2021 and will be carried out by IED Group and Artelys, with support from IDDRI’s Deep Decarbonization Pathways Initiative acting as a scientific advisor.

• Develop a robust, user-friendly, Excel-based energy sector modelling tool, capable of aggregating existing data inputs and studies to model energy supply and demand dynamics across all major energy types and at least 10 end-use sectors
• Design and model four long term energy transition scenarios to 2050: current Policies, Least Cost Development, Sustainable Development and Balanced
• Accompany stakeholders in mobilising the modelling tool and scenario analysis in decision-making and policy dialogue processes through technical training and capacity building, as well as through consultative working group meetings and the development of policy memos

A robust, user-friendly tool: the modelling tool will be based on the CEPIA Climate and Energy Prospective Impact Assessment tool, a multi-sectoral model that combines a state-of-the-art modelling approach with an easily adaptable user interface. It will be adapted to accommodate the specific requirements of the MEF and other line-ministries, as well as to represent the unique characteristics of Cambodia’s energy sector.

Four long-term energy transition scenarios for Cambodia: the 4 scenarios will be designed through a consultative process with the concerned stakeholders. In order to support the data collection and guide this processes, MEF has established a Technical Working Group, including members from MEF, the Electricity Authority of Cambodia (EAC), Electricité du Cambodge (EDC), the Ministry of Mines and Energy (MME), the Ministry of the Environment (MoE), and the National Council on Sustainable Development (NCSD), among others­.

Stakeholder engagement and capacity building: the Energy Sector Modelling Tool support has as its primary objective to create a living tool that can be used and adapted by its users to feed into multi-sectoral policy dialogue and decision-making processes over the long term.

Macroeconomic impacts: the activities described in this note constitutes the first phase of a larger project that should include a second phase focused on a multi sectorial macroeconomic approach in order to assess the impacts of the different energy sector scenarios on the overall Cambodian economy.