Modelling economy for a sustainable future with Devrim Yilmaz

Ecological transitions are a real revolution. They can have major effects - both positive and negative – on employment, imports and exports, financial stability, or public finances. They induce a global rethinking of countries’ development trajectories, stressing the urgent need to include environmental, economic, and social objectives all at once as reminded across multiple COPs as well as IPCC and IBPES reports. If all countries are concerned by ecological shifts, the Global South is more vulnerable than the rest of the world to environmental degradation or risks associated with a transition to a low-carbon economy.

Devrim Yilmaz, senior macroeconomist at AFD, shed light on the importance of modelling exercise to enable decision-makers to understand the economic impacts of climate change and the potential effects of planned transition policies. He insists on models’ game-changing role to ensure successful long-term transitions and mentions two AFD complementary tools: GEMMES and ESTEEM. Both offer a macroeconomic analyses of ecological transitions to support the South in the face of climate risks. These instruments can either anticipate transition risks or calibrate adaptation strategies by analyzing the socio-economic impacts of climate change as well as generating long-term trajectories.

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