Mozambique is one of the 60 countries followed by AFD’s country-risk economists, whose assessments shed light on countries' economic trajectory and macroeconomic and financial situation.
Context
Mozambique is AFD Group's first country of operation in Southern Africa (1981). This historic presence was made possible thanks to a wide range of financial tools mobilized over the years. Today, AFD is supporting the country in its low-carbon trajectory and in the development of basic services.
Goal
Produced by AFD's team of country-risk economists, macroeconomic country assessments provide an analysis of development processes in countries in which AFD operates. They also characterize their growth trajectory, and detect economic, social, political and financial vulnerabilities associated with these trajectories. AFD Group is thus in a position to properly measure the challenges and monitor the risks associated with each of its investments.
Emphasis is placed on developing countries, particularly in Africa, for which macroeconomic analyses are rare or infrequent. AFD seeks to complement existing production on the global economic situation, more focused on advanced economies and major emerging countries.
Find out more: Macroeconomic Analyses at AFD
Method
Country-risk analysis is based on a close follow-up over a long period of time and rooted in a fine knowledge of local contexts. Cyclical trends, often highlighted in the news, are always examined in the light of structural trends and of the regional context in which they take place. The aim is to highlight country-specific macroeconomic issues while assessing risks against comparable time- and space-based trajectories.
Country-risk economists place the study of socio-political vulnerabilities, the growth model, the viability of public debt, external balances and the soundness of the financial system at the heart of their assessment, and give specific attention to countries' exposure to climate risks.
Lessons learned
Mozambique is one of the world’s poorest countries and has alarming human development indicators. Yet it has had one of the most dynamic economic growth rates in the world for about 30 years. This paradox is largely due to the nature of the country’s development model. Indeed, this extractivist model is primarily based on the exploitation of raw materials with no, or only minimal, local processing prior to export.
Download our publications on the macroeconomic situation of Mozambique:
- “Mozambique: Completing the successful transformation of the economic model”, in MacroDev #58 (August 2024)
- “Mozambique: An outward-looking and externally-financing economy”, in MacroDev Semestrial Panorama #57 (July 2024)
- “Mozambique: A high-risk gamble on gas”, in MacroDev Semestrial Panorama #42 (Septembre 2022)
Contact:
- Alix Vigato, country-risk economist, AFD
Namibia is one of the 60 countries followed by AFD’s country-risk economists, whose assessments shed light on countries' economic trajectory and macroeconomic and financial situation.
Context
Present in Namibia since 1998, AFD offers diverse financing solutions and technical assistance to support the Namibian government with its development policy. AFD works with government partners, public enterprises, the private sector and civil society to promote a low-carbon transition, protect biodiversity and reduce socio-economic inequalities.
Goal
Produced by AFD's team of country-risk economists, macroeconomic country assessments provide an analysis of development processes in countries in which AFD operates. They also characterize their growth trajectory, and detect economic, social, political and financial vulnerabilities associated with these trajectories. AFD Group is thus in a position to properly measure the challenges and monitor the risks associated with each of its investments.
Emphasis is placed on developing countries, particularly in Africa, for which macroeconomic analyses are rare or infrequent. AFD seeks to complement existing production on the global economic situation, more focused on advanced economies and major emerging countries.
Find out more: Macroeconomic Analyses at AFD
Method
Country-risk analysis is based on a close follow-up over a long period of time and rooted in a fine knowledge of local contexts. Cyclical trends, often highlighted in the news, are always examined in the light of structural trends and of the regional context in which they take place. The aim is to highlight country-specific macroeconomic issues while assessing risks against comparable time- and space-based trajectories.
Country-risk economists place the study of socio-political vulnerabilities, the growth model, the viability of public debt, external balances and the soundness of the financial system at the heart of their assessment, and give specific attention to countries' exposure to climate risks.
Lessons learned
One of the richest countries in Africa, but also one of the most unequal in the world, Namibia had been mired in an economic slump since 2016, due to its extractive growth model, prior to the outbreak of the pandemic. The future looks less bleak. Namibia’s comparative advantage for the production of cheap green energy particularly interests developed countries, including some in the European Union. But it is especially the recent major discoveries of offshore hydrocarbon deposits which place the country at the threshold of a new era. They are already stimulating inflows of foreign direct investment, which are reaching record levels and could propel the country into the category of oil-exporting countries.
Download our publications on the macroeconomic situation of Namibia:
- “Between renewable energy and oil, the country chooses both”, in MacroDev Semestrial Panorama #57 (July 2024)
Contact:
- Vincent Joguet, country-risk economist, AFD