Lebanon, Syria, Gaza: the Middle East is home to some of the world's most complex reconstruction efforts, taking place in conflict and post-conflict settings and involving significant financing challenges. For Syria alone, the World Bank estimates reconstruction costs at 216 billion dollars.

However, the challenges are not solely financial or technical: these reconstruction processes unfold within complex political, economic and social environments, involving many stakeholders whose interests and approaches may sometimes diverge. To engage effectively in this complex geopolitical landscape, a thorough understanding of the operating environments is essential – not only for AFD Group, but also for other development actors.

Led by IFRI and coordinated by AFD, this observatory project analyses the state of destruction and the prospects for reconstruction across three territories: Gaza, Lebanon and Syria. Its aims to :

1. Understand the local dynamics (social, political and economic) of reconstruction : What are the actual needs? What is the state of the social fabric? Who are the key stakeholders and how do they interact?
2. Identify practical and feasible reconstruction pathways : What positions are the governments of these countries taking? What role can the private sector play, and how can public-private partnerships be structured? What role can civil society organisations and diasporas play?
3. Compare the positioning of external actors (European institutions and states, Israel, the United States, Gulf countries, Turkey, China, Iran and Russia) : What reconstruction plans are being proposed, and what is the level of their involvement? How do diplomacy, reconstruction and economic interests interact? Do these actors prioritise humanitarian assistance or reconstruction? What is France’s position?

To stay as close as possible to developments in this fast-moving context, a monitoring system will be established to map reconstruction projections and track decisions made by the various countries involved. IFRI will produce maps whenever relevant to support a better understanding of the broader challenges.

Three field missions will be carried out directly by IFRI researchers and/or researchers based in the region. The methodology will primarily rely on interviews, conducted either in person or remotely when travel is not possible. Syria is a particularly relevant case in this regard, as territorial disparities pose a major challenge for operators.

Operating in an interactive manner, the observatory will remain open to regular and on-request exchanges with French institutions that share an interest in these questions.

The project deliverables will include:

• Field mission reports with an oral presentation of findings;
• Publications on cross-cutting themes within IFRI’s publication series;
• A final report, covering all three reconstruction efforts and framed around a central research question, published in the collections of Éditions Agence française de développement;
• A final conference that may introduce comparative perspectives (Ukraine, Africa).

• Dorothée SCHMID, Program Manager for Turkey/the Middle East, IFRI
• Elodie RICHE, Research Officer, AFD