Rwanda, a landlocked and densely populated country in the Great Lakes region, has sustained strong growth for more than two decades, accompanied by significant improvements in living conditions for its population. Committed to climate action, the country has set ambitious measures to support a development path that is sustainable, inclusive, and growth-oriented. In 2025, Rwanda updated its climate commitments under the Paris Agreement, with a strengthened target to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 53% by 2035.

Although its contribution to global emissions is very low, Rwanda is highly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. The Rwandan economy relies heavily on climate-sensitive sectors, particularly rainfed agriculture. This type of non-irrigated farming is especially vulnerable to variations in temperature and rainfall, as well as to the growing frequency of extreme weather events (floods, droughts, landslides, etc.). Rainfed agriculture accounted for 20% of GDP in 2025 and supports roughly 55% of the working-age population, whether through formal employment or as a secondary or subsistence activity. If harvests are affected, agricultural productivity, prices, and ultimately households could all suffer. For policymakers, the challenge is therefore to better understand and measure interactions between the economy and climate in order to anticipate and manage their consequences.

Using economic modeling, the ESTEEM Rwanda project aims to deepen understanding of the macroeconomic impacts (inflation, fiscal, external, and socioeconomic vulnerability, as well as inequality) that different climate shocks can have on the agricultural sector, as well as the levers that public authorities can use to mitigate these shocks.

Developed together with partner teams from BNR – who contribute to building the model through their expertise on agricultural and macroeconomic issues, as well as by providing data – the ESTEEM model will strengthen BNR's capacity to analyze the interactions between economy and climate dynamics.

Depending on the structure of their economy, their fiscal room for maneuver, and the strength of their social protection system, countries are more or less exposed to the risks and vulnerabilities generated by a transition to a low-carbon economy: these are known as "transition risks." Developed by AFD, the ESTEEM model helps identify these risks and thus supports anticipating them in order to foster a successful transition. It is tailored to the specific situation of each partner country to serve as a decision-support tool.

In previous projects, ESTEEM was mainly used to assess transition risks linked to climate change at a given point in time. As part of the ESTEEM Rwanda project, the models have been expanded to allow for detailed economic analysis of short-term physical risks (a five-year horizon).

Multisectoral and incorporating the constraint of limited resource availability, the ESTEEM Rwanda model is based on the input-output method and the theoretical model developed by the team. It is built by a team of AFD modelers working closely with BNR's research team, who will be able to use the model to refine their decision-making tools for monetary policy and to model various shock or adaptation scenarios.

By the end of the project, the National Bank of Rwanda will have a short-term macro-sectoral model, co-developed with the AFD team, to help understand the economic consequences of extreme natural events. Training sessions and workshops will enable BNR to use this tool to explore different scenarios. In addition, the project will lead to research publications, produced in partnership with BNR, as well as dissemination activities to share the results.

• Guilherme MAGACHO, Economist, AFD
• Élise CHRÉTIEN, Research Officer, Expertise France
• Laurent DÉJARDIN-VERKINDER, Economist, Expertise France
• Faustin MANIRAGUHA, Economist, BNR

Heatwaves, intense rainfall, prolonged droughts… As climate risks intensify, it is increasingly important to know whether adaptation measures implemented at the local level are actually reducing vulnerabilities and risks. Yet international debate remains largely focused on global indicators, such as the proportion of agricultural area using climate adaptation practices and technologies, or the proportion of population using climate-resilient water services. These indicators are useful but insufficient to capture local contexts, long-term trade-offs, and the risk of maladaptation—that is, measures that, paradoxically, may increase vulnerability rather than reduce it—faced by these territories.

In South Africa, Cape Town and Nelson Mandela Bay are particularly exposed to climate risks: both cities face significant pressures linked to water scarcity, heatwaves, coastal erosion and coastal flooding. Beyond the material consequences of these risks, the challenge is also political: how can the visions, values, and interests of multiple stakeholders—municipalities, scientists, practitioners, civil society, communities, and the private sector—be reconciled to build robust and equitable adaptation pathways?

To track progress on urban climate change adaptation, the Track Adapt research project aims to adapt the GAP-Track methodology (developed by IDDRI with support from AFD and ADEME), making it relevant at the urban scale, usable by relevant stakeholders, and replicable. To this end, the research team is working with stakeholders in two pilot cities: Cape Town and Nelson Mandela Bay.

Track Adapt focuses on three main questions:

1. How can the tool be adapted to the metropolitan scale?
2. What progress, gaps and needs emerge in two priority areas for these two cities: water security in the face of drought and heat, and coastal adaptation to erosion and flooding?
3. How can regular assessment of adaptation measures make it possible to compare progress over time and across cities?

This action-research will be particularly valuable to development actors, as it enables a shift from monitoring focused on plans and indicators toward a shared understanding of what actually reduces risk. It will help municipalities, AFD and their partners prioritize actions, strengthen capacities, guide financing, and inform dialogue on more equitable adaptation pathways.

Track Adapt contributes to AFD's efforts to strengthen urban adaptation, inform public policy dialogue, and direct financing toward relevant and effective solutions

In Cape Town and Nelson Mandela Bay, technical, institutional, and academic experts, as well as civil society and economic actors, will assess the progress and limitations of adaptation using a matrix structured around six dimensions: risk knowledge, plans, actions, capacities, evidence of risk reduction and adaptation pathways.

The project will bring together complementary expertise:

• The African Climate & Development Initiative, affiliated with the University of Cape Town (ACDI-UCT), will lead local engagement, stakeholder dialogue, and methodological development; 
• IDDRI will provide methodological expertise on GAP-Track; 
• Local stakeholders will validate the methodology and share experiential knowledge; 
• AFD will provide scientific input to adapt GAP-Track to the local context, facilitate scientific outreach toward concrete adaptation projects—in South Africa and other regions of operation—and share experience with French cities.

Learning Labs will translate research findings into priority actions, financing options, and replicable lessons.

Expected outcomes include a methodological note on applying GAP-Track at the urban level, participatory assessments on water and coastal issues in Cape Town and Nelson Mandela Bay, publications (project report, policy brief, research article, etc.), and multi-stakeholder workshops.

The project also aims to strengthen the capacities of municipal actors on adaptation; create a space for dialogue among scientists, practitioners, and decision-makers; and support the identification of investment priorities to bridge the gap between adaptation needs and the responses currently in place.

African agriculture faces a triple challenge: producing enough to feed a growing population with increasing consumption of animal-based products, while reducing the use of synthetic inputs (chemical fertilizers, pesticides, etc.) and preserving natural ecosystems.

In this context, agroecology—which relies on natural processes rather than industrial inputs to maintain soil fertility—emerges as an alternative to conventional agriculture. The latter, which drove increases in agricultural yields during the “Green Revolution” of the 20th century, is now widely considered unsustainable due to its impacts on ecosystems and public health.

However, to fertilize soils, the ecological transition requires sourcing nitrogen, a key nutrient for crops, beyond cultivated land. In agroecology, nitrogen comes from natural sources such as legume crops, animal manure, and compost, which themselves require space. As a result, this can have significant implications for land use: meeting agricultural needs while adhering to agroecological principles may lead to an expansion of agricultural and grazing land, encroaching on natural areas (particularly forests, grasslands, and savannas). Issues of soil fertility and land use are therefore closely intertwined with those of biodiversity conservation.

The TAASF2050 research project aims to assess the relevance and feasibility of an agroecological agricultural model in Africa: can agroecological scenarios meet food demand? Do they make African countries more or less dependent on imports? What scope do they offer for reducing the use of synthetic fertilizers while preserving natural ecosystems?

By taking into account various factors (changes in dietary patterns, agricultural yields, and nitrogen fertilizer use), the project seeks to evaluate the implications of an agroecological transition for food sovereignty in African countries and for the preservation of natural ecosystems. More specifically, it aims to determine how far such a model can be scaled without exceeding the limits of land and ecosystems, while improving Africa’s food self-sufficiency. To this end, the project models land use and nitrogen fertilization in Africa up to 2050.

The findings will be valuable for AFD, for which agriculture and biodiversity are key priority sectors. They will also contribute to discussions with African governments on the opportunities and constraints associated with an agroecological transition in their respective national contexts.

The project relies on the GLOBAGRI simulation model developed by CIRAD. Changes in population dietary patterns, agricultural yields, and nitrogen fertilizer use are the model’s main input variables. The preservation of natural capital is treated as a fundamental constraint (the protection of tree-covered areas, the elimination of inputs derived from fossil resources and agricultural pollution, and the maintenance of soil fertility), within a strong sustainability framework.

The project led to the development of GlobAgri Africa 2050, an open-access interactive modelling tool that allows users to explore, country by country, four agricultural scenarios for Africa by 2050. It enables users to test different assumptions regarding dietary patterns and environmental constraints for each of the 45 African countries.

Initial simulations confirm the strong tension between, on the one hand, maintaining agricultural land within limits compatible with the preservation of forest cover and natural grasslands and savannas areas, and, on the other hand, limiting import dependence to a reasonable level for all African countries.

The current results, which correspond to scenarios for changes in dietary patterns (towards protein-richer diets, or toward healthier diets, or those that limit the expansion of agricultural land), can be further enriched with scenarios that AFD's partners may wish to test.

Finally, a more detailed analysis of the availability of organic fertilizing resources is expected, within the next year, to provide an assessment of the risks, at both local and national levels, of failing to ensure sufficient agricultural production to guarantee food security for populations.

• Benoit Faivre-Dupaigre ; Researcher at AFD
• Patrice Dumas ; Researcher at CIRAD, UMR CIRED 
• Rémi Prudhomme ; Researcher at CIRAD, UMR CIRED 
• David Berre ; Researcher at CIRAD, UMR AIDA