Prices were already on the rise since mid-2020, but the role played by Russia and Ukraine as major suppliers of raw materials such as oil, gas, aluminum and wheat exacerbated the trend. Causes of these price rises include the recovery of global demand following the shock of the Covid-19 pandemic, global supply chain blockages and climate change.
Rising commodity prices could fuel inflation more generally, possibly lasting several years, with consequences for emerging and developing countries in particular.
But some of the effects may well be positive, as the rise in fossil fuel prices could pave the way for an acceleration of the energy transition worldwide.
In this webinar, we explore the following questions:
- What are the causes and consequences of this global phenomenon?
- How do today’s price shocks compare to similar episodes in world economic history, particularly over the past fifty years?
- Among emerging and developing countries, which ones will benefit from this shock, and who is likely to suffer?
- What will be the impact on the energy transition?
AFD economists provide answers in the September issue of the MacroDev-Semestrial Panorama 2022, devoted to commodities. Complementing the analysis are case studies, which illustrate the consequences of such shocks in developing and emerging countries.