Semestrial Panorama 2022 #2

The rise in commodity prices had already been happening since mid-2020 and is subject to an in-depth analysis in this third issue of the semi-annual MacroDev Panorama. The objective is to place the dramatic increase in prices observed in the spring in a historical perspective and question whether it is temporary or permanent. Beyond the economic impacts on growth trajectories and external account balances, which have varying degrees of exposure and vulnerability to the shock, the social impacts, in particular in terms of food security, and political impacts are of particular concern. The shock affecting food commodity prices has highlighted the materiality of climate risks and their cross border spillover effects, as illustrated, for example, by India’s decision to suspend its wheat exports following the drought affecting the country, which is also compounding global supply tensions.