Mozambique is AFD Group's first country of operation in Southern Africa (1981). This historic presence was made possible thanks to a wide range of financial tools mobilized over the years. Today, AFD is supporting the country in its low-carbon trajectory and in the development of basic services.

Produced by AFD's team of country-risk economists, macroeconomic country assessments provide an analysis of development processes in countries in which AFD operates. They also characterize their growth trajectory, and detect economic, social, political and financial vulnerabilities associated with these trajectories. AFD Group is thus in a position to properly measure the challenges and monitor the risks associated with each of its investments.

Emphasis is placed on developing countries, particularly in Africa, for which macroeconomic analyses are rare or infrequent. AFD seeks to complement existing production on the global economic situation, more focused on advanced economies and major emerging countries.

Find out more: Macroeconomic Analyses at AFD

Country-risk analysis is based on a close follow-up over a long period of time and rooted in a fine knowledge of local contexts. Cyclical trends, often highlighted in the news, are always examined in the light of structural trends and of the regional context in which they take place. The aim is to highlight country-specific macroeconomic issues while assessing risks against comparable time- and space-based trajectories.

Country-risk economists place the study of socio-political vulnerabilities, the growth model, the viability of public debt, external balances and the soundness of the financial system at the heart of their assessment, and give specific attention to countries' exposure to climate risks.

Mozambique is one of the world’s poorest countries and has alarming human development indicators. Yet it has had one of the most dynamic economic growth rates in the world for about 30 years. This paradox is largely due to the nature of the country’s development model. Indeed, this extractivist model is primarily based on the exploitation of raw materials with no, or only minimal, local processing prior to export.

Download our publications on the macroeconomic situation of Mozambique:

• “Mozambique: Completing the successful transformation of the economic model”, in MacroDev #58 (August 2024)
• “Mozambique: An outward-looking and externally-financing economy”, in MacroDev Semestrial Panorama #57 (July 2024) 
• “Mozambique: A high-risk gamble on gas”, in MacroDev Semestrial Panorama #42 (Septembre 2022)

Contact: 

• Alix Vigato, country-risk economist, AFD