Ameliorating the Consequences of Coal Job Destruction - A Just Transition Policy Matrix Approach

Ensuring a just energy transition in South Africa requires supporting workers to absorb the negative shocks of structural change. Central to this is the design of a comprehensive social protection package for coal mining workers. This paper proposes the “just transition policy matrix” approach, which uses micro data to tailor policy responses to the needs of different groups of at-risk workers. We model five policy scenarios, representing alternative orientations, and cost corresponding packages. Total costs range from R2.2 to R10.3 billion, equivalent to 0.6–2.7% of the current social protection budget. Temporary income support dominates expenditure in all scenarios, followed by education and training. Existing policies, such as the Unemployment Insurance Fund and labour activation programmes like the Temporary Employer-Employee Relief Scheme, can be leveraged to support displaced workers. Nonetheless, when applied to coal workers, funding gaps remain, requiring additional fiscal resources and implying a substantial rise in social protection spending.