Managing Macroeconomic Vulnerabilities in Vietnam’s Energy Transition: A Multidimensional Policy Framework

Can Vietnam achieve a low-carbon transition by 2050 while maintaining its growth trajectory? With a real GDP growth rate of 8% in 2025 and a government target of 10% for 2026, Vietnam is one of the world's fastestgrowing economies. This growth has been accompanied by a significant expansion of the energy sector, marked by universal electrification and a 10% annual increase in electricity use.
However, this economic growth and energy expansion have come with significant emissions growth. In 2021, per capita emissions reached 4.8 tons CO2e -a fourfold increase since 2000, while total emissions, with 470 million tons CO2e, rank Vietnam as the world’s 18th largest emitter. Under
current policies, emissions are projected to rise to 592-692.