Mexico is one of the 60 countries followed by AFD’s country-risk economists, whose assessments shed light on countries' economic trajectory and macroeconomic and financial situation.
Context
The second largest economy in Latin America, Mexico is committed to the fight against climate change, environmental protection and the energy transition. Its objective is to halve its greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. The country is also rethinking its growth with the aim of making it more inclusive. AFD has been supporting Mexico in these efforts since 2009.
Goal
Produced by AFD's team of country-risk economists, macroeconomic country assessments provide an analysis of development processes in countries in which AFD operates. They also characterize their growth trajectory, and detect economic, social, political and financial vulnerabilities associated with these trajectories. AFD Group is thus in a position to properly measure the challenges and monitor the risks associated with each of its investments.
Emphasis is placed on developing countries, particularly in Africa, for which macroeconomic analyses are rare or infrequent. AFD seeks to complement existing production on the global economic situation, more focused on advanced economies and major emerging countries.
Find out more: Macroeconomic Analyses at AFD
Method
Country-risk analysis is based on a close follow-up over a long period of time and rooted in a fine knowledge of local contexts. Cyclical trends, often highlighted in the news, are always examined in the light of structural trends and of the regional context in which they take place. The aim is to highlight country-specific macroeconomic issues while assessing risks against comparable time- and space-based trajectories.
Country-risk economists place the study of socio-political vulnerabilities, the growth model, the viability of public debt, external balances and the soundness of the financial system at the heart of their assessment, and give specific attention to countries' exposure to climate risks.
Lessons learned
Mexico is always on the front line when it comes to benefiting or suffering as a result of economic or political changes in the USA. Trump’s rhetoric aggressively attacks Mexico over the issues of migration and drug trafficking, and accuses it of being a Trojan horse for Chinese imports. While Donald Trump’s previous term of office suggests that we should not overreact to his threats towards his neighbor, some consider him to be more determined in 2025 than in 2017. The United States is surely set to restart the “trade war”, sparing neither Europe nor Asia in view of the substantial bilateral trade deficits, and always based on a transactional approach. In a context conducive to nearshoring, Mexico could reap the benefits through its geo-economic rent.
Download our publications on the macroeconomic situation of Mexico:
- "Mexico: Gauging the “Trump 2.0” risk", in MacroDev Semestrial Panorama #61 (February 2025)
- "Mexico: Never-ending emergence", in MacroDev Semestrial Panorama #48 (July 2023)
Contact:
- Sylvain Bellefontaine, country-risk economist, AFD