The war in Ukraine, ongoing for more than a decade, is generating a growing need for knowledge about the country. Indeed, in order to act, many French public, civil-society, and media actors – including AFD – must draw on solid, up-to-date expertise. Yet while many researchers work on contemporary Ukraine, they are scattered across different research units with varied geographic and thematic focuses. Moreover, a significant proportion of them are in precarious employment situations, which reduces their visibility. The challenge is therefore twofold: to structure and strengthen an academic network, while better mobilizing its members' expertise to address the challenges of the post-war period.

Supported by AFD, the French Ministry of Armed Forces, and the French Ministry for Europe and Foreign Affairs, the Observatory of Contemporary Ukraine was launched to address a twofold challenge: structuring a network of Francophone researchers in Ukrainian studies, and mobilizing their expertise to better respond to requests from French public authorities. For AFD Group, which operates in Ukraine, this high-quality expertise is essential to inform its action.

The Observatory of Contemporary Ukraine organizes its work around one central question: what are the key issues for understanding Ukraine’s post-war future? Two complementary strands seek to decode the country's profound transformations:

• Military dimension and the transition out of war: the complexity of mobilization and demobilization processes; changes in the practices and means of warfare; and issues relating to reconstruction, demographic trends, and memory work;
• Structural transformations (economic, social, etc.) of Ukrainian society in this context of war.

The Observatory will seek both to better disseminate and to deepen existing work, while encouraging the exploration of emerging topics that remain little documented

See also : Ukraine: Resisting, Rebuilding and Innovating

To carry out its mission, the Observatory will develop a range of tools:

• Scientific monitoring of knowledge produced on Ukraine;
• Mapping of Francophone researchers in Ukrainian studies to build a network of specialists;
• Organization of events to foster dialogue between academia and public authorities and public-interest actors;
• Expertise: facilitating and coordinating the production of studies and other forms of expert input at the request of public authorities;
• Information: producing analytical briefs, organizing scientific and outreach events, and promoting researchers to the media.

Over two years, the research team will produce or organize, in coordination with AFD:

• Three seminars a year, one of which will be hosted at AFD and will result in a policy paper;
• Ten briefs a year for the general public, published on the Observatory of Contemporary Ukraine's website;
• An annual thematic conference, for both academic and operational audiences.;

At the end of the project, a joint discussion will be organized with the Observatory on Reconstruction in the Middle East, another AFD-supported research project on post-conflict reconstruction issues.

• Anna Colin Lebedev, Associate professor of political science at the University of Paris-Nanterre and scientific director of the Observatory on Contemporary Ukraine
• Bertrand de Franqueville, Ph.D. in political science from the University of Ottawa and chief operating officer of the Observatory on Contemporary Ukraine
• Elodie Riche, Research officer, AFD

Rwanda, a landlocked and densely populated country in the Great Lakes region, has sustained strong growth for more than two decades, accompanied by significant improvements in living conditions for its population. Committed to climate action, the country has set ambitious measures to support a development path that is sustainable, inclusive, and growth-oriented. In 2025, Rwanda updated its climate commitments under the Paris Agreement, with a strengthened target to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 53% by 2035.

Although its contribution to global emissions is very low, Rwanda is highly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. The Rwandan economy relies heavily on climate-sensitive sectors, particularly rainfed agriculture. This type of non-irrigated farming is especially vulnerable to variations in temperature and rainfall, as well as to the growing frequency of extreme weather events (floods, droughts, landslides, etc.). Rainfed agriculture accounted for 20% of GDP in 2025 and supports roughly 55% of the working-age population, whether through formal employment or as a secondary or subsistence activity. If harvests are affected, agricultural productivity, prices, and ultimately households could all suffer. For policymakers, the challenge is therefore to better understand and measure interactions between the economy and climate in order to anticipate and manage their consequences.

Using economic modeling, the ESTEEM Rwanda project aims to deepen understanding of the macroeconomic impacts (inflation, fiscal, external, and socioeconomic vulnerability, as well as inequality) that different climate shocks can have on the agricultural sector, as well as the levers that public authorities can use to mitigate these shocks.

Developed together with partner teams from BNR – who contribute to building the model through their expertise on agricultural and macroeconomic issues, as well as by providing data – the ESTEEM model will strengthen BNR's capacity to analyze the interactions between economy and climate dynamics.

Depending on the structure of their economy, their fiscal room for maneuver, and the strength of their social protection system, countries are more or less exposed to the risks and vulnerabilities generated by a transition to a low-carbon economy: these are known as "transition risks." Developed by AFD, the ESTEEM model helps identify these risks and thus supports anticipating them in order to foster a successful transition. It is tailored to the specific situation of each partner country to serve as a decision-support tool.

In previous projects, ESTEEM was mainly used to assess transition risks linked to climate change at a given point in time. As part of the ESTEEM Rwanda project, the models have been expanded to allow for detailed economic analysis of short-term physical risks (a five-year horizon).

Multisectoral and incorporating the constraint of limited resource availability, the ESTEEM Rwanda model is based on the input-output method and the theoretical model developed by the team. It is built by a team of AFD modelers working closely with BNR's research team, who will be able to use the model to refine their decision-making tools for monetary policy and to model various shock or adaptation scenarios.

By the end of the project, the National Bank of Rwanda will have a short-term macro-sectoral model, co-developed with the AFD team, to help understand the economic consequences of extreme natural events. Training sessions and workshops will enable BNR to use this tool to explore different scenarios. In addition, the project will lead to research publications, produced in partnership with BNR, as well as dissemination activities to share the results.

• Guilherme MAGACHO, Economist, AFD
• Élise CHRÉTIEN, Research Officer, Expertise France
• Laurent DÉJARDIN-VERKINDER, Economist, Expertise France
• Faustin MANIRAGUHA, Economist, BNR