In South Africa, the social grant system is relatively comprehensive in scope, directly benefiting one in three individuals, and mainly empowering the most vulnerable such as children, the elderly and people with disabilities from poor households. Despite the progressiveness of this system, there remains a lack of assistance to the unemployed, who are presumed to be able to support themselves through the labor market (Ferguson, 2015). However, such a view overlooks the widespread and structural nature of unemployment in South Africa, where over 70% of the unemployed have been unemployed for more than a year. 

In this light, the expansion of the country's social grant system in response to the Covid-19 pandemic played an important role in filling this gap. On the margins of the system, a special Covid-19 grant of R350 was introduced to support this previously unreached and important group of unemployed adults. With one of the highest official unemployment rates in the world (32.6 percent in the first quarter of 2021), the grant was an important form of support for millions of vulnerable adults and was the first to use an explicit labor market eligibility criterion that could be considered a "labor market vulnerability transfer."

Find out more about the Extension in South Africa

Conducted by the UCT-DPRU team, the objective of this research project was to quantitatively study whether the Covid-19 grant acted as a source of labor market recovery by leading to increased investment in productive labor market activities. 

To do this, the research aimed to provide a detailed and quantitative descriptive analysis of transitions in labor market outcomes among Covid-19 grant recipients (measuring whether individuals moved from vulnerable to more productive activities, for example), as well as an analysis of the correlation between grant receipt and labor market outcomes. Finally, it estimated the causal effects of subsidy receipt on a range of productive labor market activities. 

The analysis exploited representative survey data collected during the pandemic in South Africa (from the National Income Dynamics Study: Coronavirus Rapid Mobile Survey, NIDS-CRAM) to answer the following cross-sectional and longitudinal questions about the role of the subsidy: 

• What is the correlational relationship between receipt and job-seeking behavior, labor market participation, and the probability of finding a job ?
• What is the correlation between receipt of the subsidy and the transition from a relatively unproductive labor market state to a more productive state over time?
• Does this relationship vary across different groups and subgroups of recipients?

You will find below the research paper related to this project:

• Can cash transfers to the unemployed support economic activity ? Evidence from South Africa. 

In Mexico, more than 40 percent of the population is under the official poverty line. At the same time, Mexico is characterized by a society in which the socioeconomic origin condition is highly related to life achievement, especially on the extremes of the socioeconomic distribution (Vélez-Grajales et al, 2014). On this matter, empirical evidence shows that once the population is divided by quintiles, 48 out of 100 that were born in the lowest quintile stay there for the rest of their lives. Above the rest of them, i.e. those who are able to move to another quintile, 22 reach the second quintile. In summary, previous result leaves in poverty 70 percent of those with origin in the first quintile. It has to be noted that only 4 out of 100 that were born in the lowest quintile will move up to the top quintile.

On the other hand, above those that were born in the top quintile, 52 out of each 100 stay there for the rest of their lives. Moreover, above those that experience downward mobility, 28 out of each 100 move to the fourth quintile, i.e., 80 out of each 100 that were born in the top quintile will stay at least in the fourth quintile. Finally, it has to be noted that only 2 out of 100 that were born in the top quintile will move down to the lowest quintile. This means social mobility is very low.

This project is part of the first phase of the Research Facility on Inequalities, coordinated by AFD and funded by the European Commission's Directorate-General for International Partnerships over the 2017-2020 period. The first phase of the Facility has led to the conduct of 22 research projects and the publication of around 100 research papers and policy briefs.

How are economic inequality and social mobility related? Is it possible that the highest levels of socioeconomic persistence (lower social mobility) in terms of origin determined, in part, both perception and tolerance against economic inequality? The Mexican case, which is one where socioeconomic regional disparities are significant, represents a good option to analyze if such relationship holds. Moreover, there is still a gap in the literature for explaining the mechanisms behind the observed negative relationship.

Additionally, an important and relevant unanswered question for the Mexican case is the perception of Mexicans about inequality and social mobility levels. What if Mexicans think that the country is one of equal opportunities and results for all? Policy implications should be different among different perception scenarios. In any case, it is necessary to get information in order to understand the mechanisms at household and local level that explain the potential distance between perception and reality.

First, using a multivariate analysis method, relative intergenerational mobility can be estimated for each macro-region of the country. Several inequality measures will be estimated, but for several points in time. The researchers have chosen to do so because it is possible that not current but origin economic inequality is the relevant one for intergenerational social mobility. Once the relationship is estimated, a discussion on the mechanisms behind it should be developed. The empirical analysis will be mainly based on the “Encuesta ESRU de Movilidad Social en México 2017”.

Additionally, work with groups in 4 different cities with different levels of socioeconomic performance will be held. The researchers expect to do fieldwork in at least two different spots within each city: one for a group of medium-high socioeconomic level and one of medium-low socioeconomic level. The interview will include a measure for both inequality and social mobility. In such a way, the researchers will be able to understand in a better way the relationship between perceptions and objective measures on the variables of research interest.

See this project's 2 minutes pitch from Alice Krozer, researcher at Colegio de México:

You may find the research papers and the policy briefs linked to this project here :

Research papers:
- Social mobility in Mexico. What can we learn from its regional variation?
- Perceptions of inequality and social mobility in Mexico

Policy briefs:
- Wide regional differences in social mobility across Mexico
- Inaccurate public perceptions of inequality and social mobility in Mexico

Find the presentation of the research paper "Perceptions of inequality and social mobility in Mexico" by Aurora Ramirez Alvarez (Colegio de Mexico) during the first webinar of the Research Facility on Inequalities: