The fifth largest economy in sub-Saharan Africa, Angola is a strategic country for the AFD Group in Southern Africa. In a context of oil dependence and persistent socio-economic challenges, AFD is addressing the sustainable development priorities of its local partners, in particular by supporting improved access to water and electricity. The Group also supports Angola’s economic and financial transition by supporting macroeconomic reforms, the modernization of vocational training and higher education, and the strengthening of the entrepreneurial culture. It also promotes the development of a strong agricultural sector, generating more inclusive growth and less dependent on the vagaries of the oil sector.

Produced by AFD's team of country-risk economists, macroeconomic country assessments provide an analysis of development processes in countries in which AFD operates. They also characterize their growth trajectory, and detect economic, social, political and financial vulnerabilities associated with these trajectories. AFD Group is thus in a position to properly measure the challenges and monitor the risks associated with each of its investments.

Emphasis is placed on developing countries, particularly in Africa, for which macroeconomic analyses are rare or infrequent. AFD seeks to complement existing production on the global economic situation, more focused on advanced economies and major emerging countries.

Country-risk analysis is based on a close follow-up over a long period of time and rooted in a fine knowledge of local contexts. Cyclical trends, often highlighted in the news, are always examined in the light of structural trends and of the regional context in which they take place. The aim is to highlight country-specific macroeconomic issues while assessing risks against comparable time- and space-based trajectories.

Country-risk economists place the study of socio-political vulnerabilities, the growth model, the viability of public debt, external balances and the soundness of the financial system at the heart of their assessment, and give specific attention to countries' exposure to climate risks.

All of our publications on the macroeconomic situation of Angola are available in the MacroDev series.

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Research has already shown that some population groups have been harder hit by Covid-19 than others and that the pandemic exacerbated existing inequalities in many areas, including health, education, work, and gender.

In this context, inequality has become a central issue for governments willing to fight the effects of the pandemic and to better prepare for future shocks. In April 2020, the Togolese government set up a cash transfer program called "Novissi", with the financial contribution of AFD, to support any eligible Togolese citizen who lost his or her income due to the adoption of the response measures against Covid-19. 

Studies using updated data and capturing the potential effects of the Covid-19 pandemic on income inequality and poverty in Togo are relatively scarce. This research project aims to fill the gap in academic literature by analyzing the impacts of Covid-19 on inequality in Togo, and evaluating the effects of the Togolese social policy « Novissi » on mitigating the impact of Covid-19 on inequality.

Using rich microeconomic data from a survey conducted by Togo's Institut National de la Statistique et des Études Économiques et Démographiques (INSEED) aimed at analysing the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic, the research team will estimate an econometric model based on the model developed by Dang and Nguyen (2021).

Due to methodological limitations and data availability constraints, this project did not lead to a publication. Further information is available upon request.