As one of the continent’s major powers with significant political weight, Argentina is a strategic country in the Latin American region. Since 2017, AFD has been supporting projects to promote sustainable energy and food transition, as well as strengthening essential public services.
Produced by AFD's team of risk-country economists, country assessments provide an analysis of development processes in countries in which AFD operates. They also characterize their growth trajectory, and detect economic, social, political and financial vulnerabilities associated with these trajectories. AFD Group is thus in a position to properly measure the challenges and monitor the risks associated with each of its investments.
Emphasis is placed on developing countries, particularly in Africa, for which macroeconomic analyses are rare or infrequent. AFD seeks to complement existing production on the global economic situation, more focused on advanced economies and major emerging countries.
Country-risk analysis is based on a close follow-up over a long period of time and rooted in a fine knowledge of local contexts. Cyclical trends, often highlighted in the news, are always examined in the light of structural trends and of the regional context in which they take place. The aim is to highlight country-specific macroeconomic issues while assessing risks against comparable time- and space-based trajectories.
Country-risk economists place the study of socio-political vulnerabilities, the growth model, the viability of public debt, external balances and the soundness of the financial system at the heart of their assessment, and give specific attention to countries' exposure to climate risks.
Since the double currency crisis of 2018-2019, Argentina has experienced a resurgence of macroeconomy and fiscal instability. Following the renegotiation of part of the public debt held by private creditors in 2020 and lengthy discussions with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), an agreement was reached in March 2022 to implement a new program. This should ease short-term pressures on solvency and gradually restore the sustainability of debt and public finances. Rising commodity prices have contradictory effects on the economy: they should improve the prospects for economic growth and help replenish international reserves, but could also weigh on fiscal consolidation and inflation, increasing the risk of social tensions ahead of general elections.
Download our publications on the macroeconomic situation of Argentina:
- “Argentina: new model, new dynamic?” (October 2018, available in French and Spanish)
- “Argentina: The constrasting effects of rising commodity prices” in MacroDev Semestrial Panorama (September 2022)
Contact:
- Emmanuelle Mansart Monat, country-risk economist, AFD
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