Nigeria: The Long Road from Stabilization to Development

In 2023, the Tinubu administration inherited a challenging economic situation, with Nigeria still bearing the scars of the 2014 oil price shock as it entered the COVID-19 crisis. The reforms implemented and the rebound in the hydrocarbons sector have instilled cautious optimism, with a range of positive signals: stabilization of the naira, disinflation, an economic rebound, and a strengthening of the external position.
However, in a social context characterized by persistent inequalities and rapid population growth, the economic model remains insufficiently inclusive, while structural constraints—such as low investment, infrastructure deficits, and insecurity—continue to weigh on development. Although central to the economy, oil and gas revenues generate limited employment, and the dynamism of the services sector (particularly fintech and creative industries) remains insufficient to drive the broader economy.