Climate change and variability in South East Asia (SEA) has been remarkable in the past 20 years. In this study we focus on Vietnam and Indonesia, two countries that are among the fastest growing lower-middle income countries in the region. They are also among the worst affected by climate extreme in the past decades, ranking 6th and 50th in the Climate Risk Index (2017), respectively. However, their poverty and inequality patterns and trends are remarkably different. Although reducing at a significant pace, poverty in Indonesia persists at much higher rate than in Vietnam (ADB, 2019).

Inequality patterns also differ and have specific country level peculiarities that makes each of these countries an interesting case study. A recent UNESCAP report suggests that, between 1990-2014, despite the similar economic growth, inequality has been increasing steadily in Vietnam and even more in Indonesia. Finally, inequality driving factors are also quite dissimilar, with ethnicity and remoteness, and rural-urban divide and migration, being predominant factors respectively in Vietnam and Indonesia. 

The main purpose of this study will be two-fold:

• to provide policy makers with a substantial evidence base to target social equity and equality interventions effectively
• and to strategically inform the enforcement of social protection policies that are able to capture the climate-inequality nexus while maintaining a high degree of climate and poverty sensitivity and responsiveness.

The outputs of the project will be tailored to specific national priorities in terms of climate change and inequality via the direct engagement with policy makers and local experts. Advocacy, consultations and capacity building exercises carried out throughout the project will ensure that the research will address relevant evidence gaps to inform the dialogues for climate-inequality-sensitive decision making in Vietnam and Indonesia. 

Using a combination of repeated cross section analysis, panel analysis, synthetic panel analysis, we will investigate the relationship between climate variability and inequality at four levels:

• average impact – national level – entire population;
• average impact – national level – entire population by deciles of income distribution;
• impact at sub-national level – population located in hot-spots - vis-à-vis average/national impact (hot spots will be identified using the comprehensive climate data and the unit of analysis defined accordingly);
• impact at sub-national level – most vulnerable groups: ethnic minority, female headed HHs, etc.

The outputs have been: 

• One complete research article: Who bears the burden of climate variability? A comparative analysis of the impact of weather conditions on inequality in Vietnam and Indonesia?
• One policy brief in the AFD Policy Brief Series detailing the core contributions to the literature and results of the study: Climate variability and inequality: Comparing the experiences of Indonesia and Vietnam
• Two country policy briefs in the AFD Policy Brief Series detailing for each country the most salient aspects, results and recommendations forward: 
  - The impact of climate variability on inequality: Evidence from Indonesia
  - The impact of climate variability on inequality: Evidence from Vietnam

Two webinars based on the research paper have been organised in the CGIAR Webinar Series. These two events sought to reflect on the impacts that the current climate crisis has on the most vulnerable in Vietnam and Indonesia and to answer the following questions: Is climate variability regressive? Or better does climate variability impacts more on those who are less able to cope with its consequences? And if so, what can we do to ensure an equal, sustainable economic development for all?

• Webinar on Vietnam: watch the replay here
• Webinar on Indonesia: watch the replay here

• Cecilia Poggi, Research Officer, AFD
• Dr Grazia Pacillo

The picture within Africa is more complex, and often obscured by problems with unreliable and non-comparable data, both over time and across countries. The most careful African data analysis suggests that, measured in monetary terms, African inequality is very high, Africa being the most unequal continent. There is, however, huge variation in the magnitude, changes and texture of this inequality across the continent.

This implies a double danger. Africa first needs to ensure that it is included in the international measurements. At least as importantly, the continent must also ensure that the particular contexts of its societies are considered in the analysis both of the factors causing inequality and the consequences of inequality. This analysis is absolutely crucial because it is the basis for policy interventions and civil society action, which are necessary to reverse the trend. 

Given this context, a research project focusing on the development of diagnostic tools and capacity building was launched in partnership with the African Center of Excellence on Inequality Research (ACEIR) in the framework of the first phase of the Research Facility on Inequalities. The initial study (2018-2020) led to an in-depth analysis of inequalities in four countries: South Africa, Ghana, Kenya and Cote d’Ivoire. A Handbook on Inequality Measurement, which serves as a foundational guide for multidimensional inequality analysis, was also developed by ACEIR. The Handbook outlines key dimensions and indicators of inequality and provides guildelines for measuring income and beyond income inequalities.

Following the success of this research project:

• A fifth analysis was launched in Mozambique over the 2022-2024 period;
• A research project aming to expand and update the Handbook by incorporating methodologies for assessing vulnerabilities related to climate change and ecological transitions has also been launched over the 2024-2025 period.

The main objective of this research project was to advance the analysis of African inequality and the policy discussion on strategies to overcome inequality in Africa through a series of country-level engagements. The project was given structure and impetus through the development of a diagnostic tool that was implemented in a limited number of pilot countries. This diagnostic tool consists of a thorough analysis of the various inequalities in a given country which enables the government to identify the priorities and policy options in order to reduce them.

In order to build the diagnostic tool, a Handbook was also developed to set up a common base which enabled country comparisons. To extend its use and improve accountability, it was backed with a central data hub and strong data centres in each partner country that allowed and facilitated further inequality analysis.

Existing multidimensional inequality analyses primarily concentrate on examining inequalities within the social and economic domains. While many low-income countries are severely impacted by climate change, there is a notable research gap in the analysis of inequalities related to climate vulnerabilities and their interactions with other socio-economic and environmental factors. The extension and updating of the Handbook, carried out over the period 2024-2025, aims to address this gap and provide the guidelines for integrating the analysis of climate-related inequalities in future diagnostics.

The diagnostic tool is based on three pillars :

1. a conceptual and empirical review of the studies on inequality in Africa, allowing us to have a baseline for the development of future projects, as well as a better comprehension of the specificities of inequalities in Africa and of their measurement;
2. a Handbook which contains the framework proposed for the country inequality diagnostics, the methodological issues around the measurement of inequalities and their analysis and the important issues linked to policies;
3. the support to the implementation of the country diagnostic, in collaboration with the pilot countries’ local research teams and the creation of the data hub.

In order to expand and update the Handbook, researchers will thoroughly examine and synthesise existing literature that addresses the measurement and analysis of climate-related vulnerabilities. This approach will help identify gaps in current research and propose a minimal set of indicators for measuring vulnerabilities linked to climate change and the imperatives of the ecological transition and detail appropriate data and measurement methods to enable their inclusion as part of an inequality diagnostic report.  

In practical terms, the country diagnostic takes the form of a report which overviews the inequality within a country, across all relevant dimensions, for a given time and over time. Alongside this, it summarises the main policies passed, or in place, expected to have an impact on inequalities. Each country will use their diagnostic as a platform:

• for policy engagements on strategies to overcome inequality,
• for the stimulation of national dialogue and a national research focus on inequality,
• to lead the national discussion through further, high impact research papers from the country node on inequality.

• Anda David, Research Officer, AFD
• Rawane Yasser, Junior Research Officer, AFD