Brazil faces significant challenges in its low-carbon transition, including maintaining global competitiveness and avoiding macroeconomic imbalances. To address these, in partnership with the Ministry of Finance, and in cooperation with CEPAL and IPEA, AFD is developing an economic modelling tool to assess the impacts of public policies, specifically those related to the Ecological Transformation Plan.
Contacts:
- Guilherme Magacho, Economist, AFD
- Gaëlle Le Treut, Economist, AFD
Brazil is one of the 60 countries followed by AFD’s country-risk economists, whose assessments shed light on countries' economic trajectory and macroeconomic and financial situation.
Context
In line with the international agenda on sustainable development and combating climate change, AFD is supporting Brazil on its path towards low-carbon, resilient and equitable development, leveraging its financial instruments to support regional development players.
Goal
Produced by AFD's team of country-risk economists, country assessments provide an analysis of development processes in countries in which AFD operates. They also characterize their growth trajectory, and detect economic, social, political and financial vulnerabilities associated with these trajectories. AFD Group is thus in a position to properly measure the challenges and monitor the risks associated with each of its investments.
Emphasis is placed on developing countries, particularly in Africa, for which macroeconomic analyses are rare or infrequent. AFD seeks to complement existing production on the global economic situation, more focused on advanced economies and major emerging countries.
Find out more: Macroeconomic analyses at AFD
Method
Country-risk analysis is based on a close follow-up over a long period of time and rooted in a fine knowledge of local contexts. Cyclical trends, often highlighted in the news, are always examined in the light of structural trends and of the regional context in which they take place. The aim is to highlight country-specific macroeconomic issues while assessing risks against comparable time- and space-based trajectories.
Country-risk economists place the study of socio-political vulnerabilities, the growth model, the viability of public debt, external balances and the soundness of the financial system at the heart of their assessment, and give specific attention to countries' exposure to climate risks.
Lessons learned
Our publications on Brazil's macroeconomic situation:
- "Brazil: Beware of own goals", in MacroDev Semestrial Panorama n°44 (July 2023)
- "Brazil: a short-lived lull", in MacroDev Semestrial Panorama n°41 (February 2022)
- "Où en est l’économie brésilienne ?" (April 2014, in French)
Contact:
- Maxime Terrieux, country-risk economist at AFD