Impact assessments aim to provide information on the effectiveness of projects in producing concrete development results. Specifically, the objective is to estimate whether the effect observed following an intervention is actually attributable to that intervention, and to what extent. To do this, assessments rigorously measure the effects of interventions using quantitative, qualitative, geospatial, or mixed method.

With the aim of strengthening research skills and practices in the Global South in the field of impact evaluation, enriching dialogue with public authorities and stakeholders on development projects, and fostering academic debate on key development issues, a partnership between the French National Research Institute for Sustainable Development (IRD) and AFD was established in 2020 to identify and implement a series of impact evaluations of interventions supported by AFD. The IRD provides the expertise, networks, and operational capacity to carry out these evaluations with partners in the Global South. The partnership was extended in October 2024, which will allow for the selection of new projects for evaluation.

The IRD is recognized for its scientific excellence, its multidisciplinary approach, its experience in conducting impact evaluation, and its local presence, which enables it to develop close ties with university teams and national statistical institutes in the South with which it can collaborate. This collaboration is also part of a shared research agenda and is covered by an institutional partnership between AFD and the IRD.

See also : Assessing the impact of development projects: AFD and IRD extend their PAIRES partnership, in French 

The PAIRES program funds impact evaluations of development projects financed by AFD Group, with three objectives:

1. To enrich dialogue with public authorities and stakeholders on development projects and their results;
2. To strengthen the role, skills, and practice of research in the South in the field of impact evaluation;
3. To foster academic debate on key development issues.

Impact evaluations use methods derived from social science research to identify and measure the effects that are strictly attributable to an intervention. Quantitative methods generally involve comparing changes in the situation of the population benefiting from the intervention with those of a population that has not been exposed to the intervention but is comparable to the beneficiary population. Impact evaluation, generally using counterfactuals, therefore makes it possible to isolate the causal effect of an intervention on a variable of interest and to quantify that effect.

Beyond promoting impact evaluations, the PAIRES partnership promotes multidisciplinary evaluations, combining quantitative and qualitative methodologies in order to strengthen the lessons learned about the mechanisms underlying change (or the absence of change).

In addition, the PAIRES program involves researchers from the countries of intervention in all its studies to ensure that the specificities of each context are taken into account and with a view to capacity building.

The ongoing impact evaluations cover 11 countries and various sectors (health, energy, biodiversity, education, gender equality, microfinance, agriculture). They have enabled collaboration with several academic, public, and civil society institutions in France and in countries of the Global South. Other assessments are currently being identified. 

In terms of capacity building, PAIRES has organized a summer school and two training courses in geospatial impact evaluation in Madagascar. The program has also funded two joint doctoral contracts between the University of Antananarivo and Paris Saclay University for the BETSAKA project.

Find below the publications and blog articles related to the impact assessments funded under the PAIRES partnership.

• Flore Gubert, IRD Scientific Coordinator
• Ingrid Dallmann, AFD Project Manager
• Juliette Maunoury,  IRD PAIRES Project Coordinator

Highly exposed to the effects of climate change and to the degradation of natural resources, Colombia is strengthening its climate policy, considering a green growth strategy, particularly since the 2014-2018 National Development Plan. Nevertheless, the country's dependence on raw material exports and its strong integration into international financial markets generate monetary, financial and commercial vulnerabilities. 

AFD is supporting Colombia in its efforts to tackle climate change through the GEMMES Colombia project, which is part of the third climate policy loan since 2018. The GEMMES programme, by integrating the impact of climate change into its forecasts, is developing a general theoretical model on the one hand, and national models applied to concrete cases and adapted to the characteristics of each country on the other, including the GEMMES Colombia model. 

The GEMMES Colombia project, which is fully in line with AFD's commitment to strong sustainability, aims to :

• Highlight potential fragilities in the Colombian economy through a better understanding of the interactions between fiscal, monetary and trade policies and the country's NDC objectives;
• Identify the opportunities generated by the energy transition in Colombia: structural changes and financing methods under the best possible conditions;
• Quantifying the macroeconomic impact of NDC-related investments, particularly in the financial and tax sectors;
• Promoting public policy dialogue on Colombia's energy transition:

- Providing a decision-making tool for decision-makers on climate policies, with a view to limiting the consequences identified without compromising the implementation of Colombia's NDC objectives;

- By promoting the appropriation and sustainability of the GEMMES modelling tool within the partner institutions.

In addition to its specific transdisciplinary approach, which makes this project one of the few to integrate the notion of strong sustainability, the originality of GEMMES lies in its consideration of macro-financial imbalances and the impact of the low-carbon transition on all elements of the balance of payments.

Moreover, GEMMES Colombia is part of a partnership initiative that is organised around two phases:

• The first phase is based on the development of the model and the macroeconomic analysis of the Colombian NDC trajectory, in partnership with the National Planning Department (DNP) and the Ministry of Finance (MHCP) supported by AFD's modelling teams.
• The second is intended to ensure the sustainability of the project after the end of the support, with the analysis by the National University of Bogota (UNAL) of the interactions between trade, fiscal and monetary policies and the NDC trajectory, as well as the training of students in sustainable development through the Catedra course as well as in the GEMMES methodological approach.

The GEMMES Colombia model, enriched by academic expertise and integrated into decision-making processes through Colombian ministries, has become a key tool for public policy dialogue on the energy transition:

• At the request of the Colombian authorities, GEMMES was added to the MHCP’s macroeconomic models in 2023 and was coupled with the Energyscope energy model, a tool for energy assessment and planning. The model’s adoption continued in 2024 with an executive training session on its use provided to MHCP officials.
• These exchanges are ongoing through the GEMMES Strategic Committee, composed of the Ministry of Finance and Public Credit (MHCP), the National Planning Department (DNP), the Ministry of Mines and Energy (MME), and the Banco de la República.

Furthermore, the research work led to the publication of a collective volume launched in June 2024, presenting the scientific findings and policy recommendations derived from the project: Modelling Low-Carbon Transitions in Colombia: Macrofinancial Opportunities and Risks

This work also gave rise to a new initiative: the creation of PowerShift, a strategy game designed to support multi-stakeholder dialogue around Colombia’s NDC.

Download the book

Watch the replay of the GEMMES Colombia book launch (in Spanish)

The first results of the project had been presented at the virtual congress "Conexión DNP: transfiriendo conocimiento para innovar" on 2 and 3 December 2021. The project partners expressed their satisfaction, with the MHCP showing a particular interest in modelling after a year of remote work due to the Covid-19 pandemic.

In March 2022, a university course on sustainable development (Catedra), partly based on the results of the GEMMES Colombia project, was launched at UNAL. As a continuation of this initiative, a second course on the modelling of ecological transitions in the Global South was given in 2023.

The GEMMES Colombia model, by developing scenarios on fossil fuel exports and alternative policies for the 2023-2050 period, as well as financing scenarios of the NDC trajectory, contributes to informing decision-makers in their political strategy to fight global warming. The model also allowed the National Planning Department (DNP) to analyze the consequences of economic shocks such as the loss of the country’s investment quality, the reduction of coal exports or the bankruptcy of Evergrande in China.

The conclusion is clear: a diversification of the production structure and a transformation of public finances are essential if Colombia is to meet the challenges of a global low-carbon transition and ensure its own energy transition. The GEMMES model highlights the importance of using a combination of private investment and public green bonds to finance Colombia's climate ambition.