In Colombia, the oil and coal mining industry is an important source of fiscal revenues, including royalties. The Sistema General de Participaciones (or General Participation System, GPS) has therefore been set up to organise the transfer of these royalties – that come from the exploitation of non-renewable natural resources – from the Ministry of Finance and Public Credit to territorial entities. These resources finance the provision of services in the sectors of education, health, drinking water and basic sanitation, general purpose and special allocations, in the different regions of Colombia. This mechanism aims at ensuring a fair distribution of income, which is essential since spatial inequalities in terms of access to services are still significant in Colombia – as shown by the multidimensional diagnosis of inequalities carried out with the support of AFD. For example, while in urban areas, the secondary education coverage rate is close to 100%, it is 50% in rural areas.

The Strategy for monitoring, follow-up and control of the resources of the GPS is a public policy tool led by the Ministry of Finance and Public Credit to carry out control over the management of the resources transferred. This strategy, in implementation for almost 15 years, identifies alerts and cases of non-compliance with the goal of assuring continuity, coverage and quality in the provision of public services. This seeks to prevent and mitigate risks in the provision of social services throughout Colombia, which is essential for the construction of equity across the country, as well as to prevent territorial gaps from widening with regards to the institutional capacities of local governments and to the provision of social services for all populations, regardless of their location. 

This work is also part of AFD's dialogue with the Colombian authorities on tax reform and the reduction of spatial inequalities.

This research project seeks to generate recommendations with the purpose of analysing and strengthening the role of the GPS tool – “the Strategy” – as a mechanism for closing territorial gaps in institutional capacities to provide social services.

Two research objectives have been identified, one in the field of diagnosis, and another in the field of recommendations:

1. Identify the achievements, limitations, and challenges of the implementation of the Strategy in closing territorial gaps in the institutional capacities of territorial entities and in the provision of essential social services.
2. Provide recommendations to strengthen the Strategy in its role of institutional assistance for the closing of territorial gaps.

The project will focus on sectors that receive more resources from the GPS, present more risks in their provision and are the most relevant as essential social services: education, health, drinking water and basic sanitation, and indigenous reservations.

The research methodology will be mixed methods and will include:

• A document review at the level of the Ministry of Finance and Public Credit and the territorial entities selected as a case study;
• A secondary data analysis;
• In-depth interviews with a subsample of the selected territorial entities.

You will find below the research paper related to this project:

Assessing the Impact of the Monitoring, Follow-Up, and Control Strategy on Territorial Inequalities in Colombia (November 2025)

Download the research paper

Colombia, a country heavily reliant on fossil fuel exports, is actively working to complete its low-carbon transition and achieve its Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) targets under the Paris Climate Agreement.

To support these efforts, AFD has partnered with Colombian authorities to adapt the GEMMES macroeconomic model to Colombia's specific context. The objective was to assess the long-term macroeconomic vulnerabilities and opportunities linked to Colombia's energy transition within the broader global shift to low-carbon economies.

This research work has culminated in a collaborative publication, which outlines the scientific findings and public policy recommendations derived from the GEMMES Colombia project: Modelling low-carbon transitions in Colombia: Macrofinancial risks and opportunities

While macroeconomic modelling is crucial for understanding the impacts of policy decisions and addressing macroeconomic imbalances during transitions, it is equally important to consider the behavioral aspects that shape the decision-making processes and strategies of stakeholders involved in Colombia’s low-carbon transition.

Based on the empirical results reflected in the GEMMES model scenarios, this project aims to develop a strategy game for the collective exploration of future scenarios. Beyond economic and financial aspects, it also addresses the energy transition by integrating social and climate dimensions, as well as, to a lesser extent, biodiversity-related issues.

This participatory modelling process is designed to facilitate dialogue among key stakeholders in Colombia’s transition (ministries, central bank, entrepreneurs, researchers, etc.), enabling them to anticipate and prepare for the short-, medium-, and long-term macroeconomic impacts that a low-carbon transition may generate.

To this end, the serious game Powershift aims to:

• Familiarize stakeholders in Colombia’s energy transition with macroeconomic issues related to transitions, so they can take ownership of these topics;
• Identify the “mental models” of each category of stakeholders regarding the energy transition, in order to better highlight emerging tensions and synergies and help evolve perceptions;
• Make scientific frameworks accessible and engaging to support informed decision-making;
• Improve coordination between public institutions, economic actors, and researchers around energy transition challenges.

This project therefore seeks to strengthen high-level interministerial and cross-sectoral dialogue and, by extension, enhance coordination among stakeholders (including the private sector) in support of Colombia’s environmental commitments.

Download the project presentation leaflet

The design, modeling, and implementation of the strategy game are grounded in the ComMod methodology, initially developed by CIRAD to facilitate multi-stakeholder processes and support collective decision-making and action.

The process includes modelling workshops with stakeholders, crash-test sessions, and game workshops involving policymakers, financial actors, donors, researchers, private sector representatives, and civil society. Key stages include conceptualization, validation, and scenario exploration. Participants are free to define their own strategies; any crises or tensions that arise during the game result from the collective decisions made throughout the sessions.

An ex-ante and ex-post assessment of stakeholders’ positions makes it possible to measure the effects of the approach on knowledge, interactions among actors, and participants’ strategic capacities. Debriefing workshops have been organized with policymakers to ensure effective ownership of the findings.

The project has led to the creation of a strategy game that is now beginning to be used by Colombian counterparts to explore energy transition scenarios. To date, 3 crash-test sessions and 9 game sessions have been held, bringing together nearly 200 public and private stakeholders involved in the energy transition, as well as more than 50 different institutions. These include Colombian universities, ministries (finance, environment, labour, planning, housing, health, energy, agriculture, tourism), the central bank, financial supervisory authorities, commercial banks, research centres, international cooperation actors, NGOs, business associations, and consulting firms. Some sessions included the participation of vice-ministers.

The workshops helped strengthen dialogue at four levels: interministerial; cross-sectoral (with a strong diversity of public, private, academic, and international actors across all sessions); interdepartmental (notably through the mobilisation of the 14 departments of the Financial Superintendency); and public–private.

By mobilising this wide range of stakeholders, PowerShift has marked an important step in strengthening Franco-Colombian interministerial and cross-sectoral dialogue on the energy transition. Outputs include a project synthesis report, a research paper, policy recommendations, and knowledge-sharing materials. Key insights were shared through debriefing workshops with Colombian partners.

Find out more: 

• Summary of the workshops held in June 2024
• Summary of the workshops held in September 2024
• Replay of the restitution workshop & presentation

Feedback from participants in the sessions indicates an improved understanding of the effects of the energy transition on the real economy of a country heavily dependent on hydrocarbon exports, as well as increased awareness of the associated challenges.

Key comments include:

• Importance of the co-construction process: Developing the game with Colombian partners allowed for the integration of the country’s institutional and economic specificities, which enhanced its credibility and stakeholder engagement.
• Creation of a pedagogical space conducive to dialogue: The sessions facilitated contacts with actors who had not previously been engaged.
• Flexibility and adaptability: The tool demonstrated its ability to adapt to different audiences, making it a valuable asset for a variety of stakeholders.
• Awareness of the complexity of energy transition dynamics: The game highlighted the interdependencies between economic, climate, and social issues, as well as differences in priorities between institutions, helping to better understand potential obstacles to public action.
• Illumination of behavioral dynamics: The sessions revealed that organized collective action primarily emerges in response to urgent issues or shared problems.
• Challenge of a holistic vision: Participants noted that developing a comprehensive view of the energy transition and actors’ strategies is particularly difficult due to the complexity of the subject.
• Success factors for participatory approaches: The involvement of high-level decision-makers and the existence of a safe dialogue space were identified as key factors in fostering participant engagement.
• Limits of the exercise in a short timeframe: While the game facilitates understanding of systemic dynamics, translating this understanding into actionable solutions requires complementary measures and long-term follow-up.

Building on these achievements, potential avenues for extension could include:

• Technical support for potential application of the tool at the territorial level;
• Facilitation of international exchanges to share best practices in participatory dialogue;
• Further strengthening of public–private partnerships through continued use of the tool.

• Annabelle Moreau Santos, Scientific Mediation Officer, AFD
• Antoine Godin, Economist, Head of AFD Macroeconomic Modelling Team
• Julien Calas, Agronomist and Research Officer on Biodiversity, AFD