Côte d'Ivoire, the leading regional power in West Africa, aims to become an emerging country by 2020. To do this, it must reduce the poverty and inequality affecting its population and take all the necessary steps to promote youth employment. As a long-standing partner of Côte d'Ivoire, AFD supports it in carrying out key transitions for its future: demographic, social, energy, etc.

Produced by AFD's team of country-risk economists, country assessments provide an analysis of development processes in countries in which AFD operates. They also characterize their growth trajectory, and detect economic, social, political and financial vulnerabilities associated with these trajectories. AFD Group is thus in a position to properly measure the challenges and monitor the risks associated with each of its investments.

Emphasis is placed on developing countries, particularly in Africa, for which macroeconomic analyses are rare or infrequent. AFD seeks to complement existing production on the global economic situation, more focused on advanced economies and major emerging countries.

Find out more: Macroeconomic analyses at AFD

Country-risk analysis is based on a close follow-up over a long period of time and rooted in a fine knowledge of local contexts. Cyclical trends, often highlighted in the news, are always examined in the light of structural trends and of the regional context in which they take place. The aim is to highlight country-specific macroeconomic issues while assessing risks against comparable time- and space-based trajectories.

Country-risk economists place the study of socio-political vulnerabilities, the growth model, the viability of public debt, external balances and the soundness of the financial system at the heart of their assessment, and give specific attention to countries' exposure to climate risks.

Since emerging from its “lost decade” (2000-2010), Côte d'Ivoire has enjoyed strong economic growth (+7.2% since 2012). Resilient in the face of successive external shocks, it has confirmed its position within the WAEMU. A lower-middle-income country, it aspires to join the upper bracket by 2030. To achieve this, the economy, which is still largely based on commodity exports, faces a number of challenges, including restoring fiscal and external balance. Investment needs remain high to overcome persistent socio-economic fragilities and build an inclusive growth model. Despite good economic performance, the country remains vulnerable to political and security risks.

Our publications on Côte d'Ivoire's macroeconomic situation: 

• "Côte d’Ivoire: Macro-financial resilience and pursuit of an emerging ambition" in MacroDev n°60 (February 2025)

• "Race towards emergence challenged by shocks" in MacroDev Semestrial Panorama n°53 (February 2024)
• "Côte d’Ivoire: a relatively resilient economy", in MacroDev Semestrial Panorama n°36 (September 2021)
• "Debt sustainability in Africa: state of play and future challenges", MacroDev n°34 (May 2021)
• "Les enjeux de la nouvelle croissance ivoirienne" (October 2015, in French)

Contact: 

• Laura Marie, country-risk economist at AFD

Elaborating development policies in line with the principles of strong sustainability is a complex issue because of the tensions that may exist between different Sustainable Development Goals. The desire to integrate 42% of renewable energies in Côte d'Ivoire's energy mix by 2030 therefore requires a reflection on the possible sustainable development trajectories, a subject at the heart of the GEMMES Côte d'Ivoire project.

This project is part of AFD's modelling work, that integrates climate dynamics, both adaptation and mitigation, into macroeconomic forecasts to inform public policy choices in this area. AFD is developing a general theoretical model on the one hand, and national models applied to specific cases and adapted to the characteristics of each country (including the GEMMES Côte d'Ivoire model) on the other hand. 

Find out more about GEMMES: AFD and Macroeconomic Modelling Tools for the Ecological Transition

This collaboration between AFD, the Ministry of Planning and Development of Côte d'Ivoire and Mines ParisTech is one of the components of the memorandum of strategic dialogue, which aims to develop research activities, their dissemination, as well as their synergies with public policies.

GEMMES Côte d'Ivoire's first goal is to better understand the interactions between the economy and socio-economical aspects. It focuses on the macroeconomic impacts of the energy transition and their ability to create favorable conditions for poverty reduction.

One of its specificities is that it aims to foster dialogue on the ecological transition between researchers and policy makers, both at national and international levels. GEMMES Côte d'Ivoire aspires to propose a tool to facilitate political decision-making, proposing transition trajectories in favor of climate. It could then provide elements contributing to the definition of an energy transition strategy for 2050 in line with Côte d'Ivoire’s poverty reduction and climate goals.

More broadly, GEMMES Côte d'Ivoire is helping to consolidate AFD’s position as a main stakeholder on low-carbon transition and strong sustainability.

GEMMES Côte d'Ivoire develops a multidimensional and transdisciplinary approach focused on the effects of the energy transition. The project is based on modelling exercises:

• Techno-economical modelling of the energy system, developed by Mines Paris Tech
• Macroeconomic modelling, developed by AFD and the Ivorian think tank CAPEC

The methodological framework of GEMMES has been adapted to meet the characteristics of the Ivorian economy. A particular focus was placed on the stability of the trade balance and public debt. Moreover, the coupling between the energy model and the macroeconomic model allows to perceive the interactions between the dynamics of energy transition and macro-financial stability. In addition, coupling can highlight the benefits of an ambitious energy transition in terms of external sustainability and job creation.

Three scenarios quantifying the long-term macroeconomic effects of the energy transition have been established. As a result, the development of renewable energy could reduce the average production cost by 20% under certain scenarios, notably through increased investment in the solar battery sector.

The development of this sector would also generate positive socio-economic impacts, concerning growth, employment and the trade balance, while increasing bioelectricity generation capacity improves the income of 4 million people in rural areas. This environment is then more favourable to the deployment of specific policies to fight poverty.

• Read also: Assoumou, E., & McIsaac, F. (2022). Côte d'Ivoire's electricity challenge in 2050: Reconciling economic development and climate commitments. Energy Policy, 160, 112681

The project has conducted the first GEMMES modelization exercise incorporated in the ongoing public policy dialogue between AFD and Ivorian public stakeholders. The project has provided the Ivorian government with models highlighting the opportunities and contradictions within the country's trajectory, between the possible energy choices, the environmental agreements to be considered and the financial implications of each scenario.

Contact : 

• Antoine Godin, economist at AFD, head of the GEMMES Macroeconomic Modelling Unit