Recent studies examining the risks to financial system stability associated with nature degradation have been conducted for countries such as the Netherlands, France, and others. These studies consistently underscore that biodiversity loss can have profound destabilising effects. Such effects may arise either from the collapse of ecosystems and the services they provide to economies (referred to as ‘physical shocks’) or from shifts in behaviour, technology, or regulation linked to ecological transitions (‘transition shocks’).

However, these risks extend well beyond the financial sector, particularly in countries from the Global South. How can the macro-financial context be better incorporated into analyses of nature-related risks in emerging economies, where it plays a critical role in the resilience of businesses and institutions? And in the context of climate challenges, how can we better account for the territorial dimension of nature-related risks and conduct spatially explicit assessments?

Focusing on the case of South Africa, this study evaluates the potential effects of either a physical shock (resulting from the degradation of ecosystem services) or a transition shock (arising from measures or innovations aimed at reducing the pressures certain economic sectors place on biodiversity). These effects will be examined across multiple dimensions, including production, income generation, inflation, employment, wages, external balance, and fiscal stability.

Beyond this broad analysis, the method seeks to identify the specific locations of these risks within the region. This spatially explicit approach aims to provide actionable insights for local decision-makers, enabling them to implement well-informed measures for an effective ecological transition.

This study introduces innovative methods for assessing the socio-economic risks associated with nature degradation, grounded in two main contributions:

• Multidimensional analysis of macro-financial and social variables: the study examines the exposure of key macro-financial and social variables to nature-related risks. By using input-output tables extended to include environmental and socio-economic satellite accounts, it identifies how these risks could significantly affect sectors that are directly and indirectly critical to production chains and, consequently, socio-economic stability.
• Granular spatial assessment: at the municipal level in South Africa, the study investigates nature-related vulnerabilities through a more detailed spatial analysis. This approach integrates spatially disaggregated economic data with mapped ecological data to ensure consistency, enabling the identification of specific socio-economic exposures.

Together, these two interconnected approaches emphasize the need for a holistic understanding of nature-related risks. They demonstrate the value of interdisciplinary collaboration between economists and ecologists, aiming to balance the intertwined goals of economic prosperity, social stability, and environmental sustainability.

The study identifies economic sectors potentially exposed to significant risks and provides South African stakeholders with a foundation for conducting deeper analyses to determine the extent and materiality of these risks.

In South Africa, for instance, 80% of the country’s exports and 60% of business loans are heavily reliant on the water supply services provided by ecosystems. Beyond direct exposure, shocks affecting sectors dependent on these ecosystem services can cascade through the industrial network, triggering demand or supply disruptions. While 18% of jobs and 24% of salaries are directly exposed to such risks—particularly in the property and manufacturing sectors—these figures rise to 48% and 56%, respectively, when considering activities indirectly linked through value chains.

Given biodiversity’s strong dependence on geographic factors, it is essential to complement prior analyses with geolocalised studies. These analyses identify the economic activities located in areas where ecosystems and their services are already degraded. For example, when factoring in the location of companies involved in exports, the initial estimate that 80% of South African exports depend on surface water supply decreases to around 23%. This revised figure reflects exports generated by activities reliant on surface water supply and situated in municipalities where this ecosystem service is significantly degraded. In other words, when the geographic degradation of ecosystem services is considered, nearly a quarter of net exports are directly vulnerable to water scarcity.

Find out more: 

• Read the research paper: Socio-economic and spatially-explicit assessment of nature-related risks – The case of South Africa
• Read the research paper: A framework to assess socioeconomic and spatialized nature-related risks: An application to South Africa (Environmental and Sustainability Indicators, 2025)
• Watch the replay of the Research Conversations webinar on the research project, with South African partners

The method has garnered interest and validation from numerous economic and environmental policymakers, highlighting its relevance. Rather than focusing on precise numerical results, the emphasis lies on the orders of magnitude and the identification of economic sectors that are either highly dependent on ecosystem services (exposed to physical risks) or exert significant pressure on biodiversity (exposed to transition risks). These insights are sparking interest and debate.

One of the key outcomes has been fostering dialogue among South African stakeholders who previously had limited interaction, including the South African National Biodiversity Institute (SANBI), the Department of the Environment, the Department of Finance, and the South African Reserve Bank (SARB).

South African stakeholders are now working to translate these technical findings into accessible materials for non-specialist audiences and to facilitate deeper discussions with representatives from sectors identified as either risk-exposed or offering opportunities for resilience and positive socio-economic impacts.

Furthermore, the South African Reserve Bank, in collaboration with the Agence Française de Développement (AFD), is applying this method to assess the financial sector's exposure to nature-related risks across member countries of the Southern African Development Community (SADC). The Development Bank of South Africa (DBSA) has also begun using this approach to evaluate the exposure of its own portfolio. Future iterations and enhancements of the method are anticipated as its use expands.

• Paul Hadji-Lazaro, Ecological Macroeconomist at AFD
• Julien Calas, Research Officer on Biodiversity, AFD
• Antoine Godin, Economist, Head of AFD Macroeconomic Modelling Unit
• Andrew Skowno, National Biodiversity Analysis Coordinator at SANBI
• Pamela Sekese, Geospatial Consultant

Mozambique is AFD Group's first country of operation in Southern Africa (1981). This historic presence was made possible thanks to a wide range of financial tools mobilized over the years. Today, AFD is supporting the country in its low-carbon trajectory and in the development of basic services.

Produced by AFD's team of country-risk economists, macroeconomic country assessments provide an analysis of development processes in countries in which AFD operates. They also characterize their growth trajectory, and detect economic, social, political and financial vulnerabilities associated with these trajectories. AFD Group is thus in a position to properly measure the challenges and monitor the risks associated with each of its investments.

Emphasis is placed on developing countries, particularly in Africa, for which macroeconomic analyses are rare or infrequent. AFD seeks to complement existing production on the global economic situation, more focused on advanced economies and major emerging countries.

Find out more: Macroeconomic Analyses at AFD

Country-risk analysis is based on a close follow-up over a long period of time and rooted in a fine knowledge of local contexts. Cyclical trends, often highlighted in the news, are always examined in the light of structural trends and of the regional context in which they take place. The aim is to highlight country-specific macroeconomic issues while assessing risks against comparable time- and space-based trajectories.

Country-risk economists place the study of socio-political vulnerabilities, the growth model, the viability of public debt, external balances and the soundness of the financial system at the heart of their assessment, and give specific attention to countries' exposure to climate risks.

Mozambique is one of the world’s poorest countries and has alarming human development indicators. Yet it has had one of the most dynamic economic growth rates in the world for about 30 years. This paradox is largely due to the nature of the country’s development model. Indeed, this extractivist model is primarily based on the exploitation of raw materials with no, or only minimal, local processing prior to export.

Download our publications on the macroeconomic situation of Mozambique:

• “Mozambique: Completing the successful transformation of the economic model”, in MacroDev #58 (August 2024)
• “Mozambique: An outward-looking and externally-financing economy”, in MacroDev Semestrial Panorama #57 (July 2024) 
• “Mozambique: A high-risk gamble on gas”, in MacroDev Semestrial Panorama #42 (Septembre 2022)

Contact: 

• Alix Vigato, country-risk economist, AFD

Present in Namibia since 1998, AFD offers diverse financing solutions and technical assistance to support the Namibian government with its development policy. AFD works with government partners, public enterprises, the private sector and civil society to promote a low-carbon transition, protect biodiversity and reduce socio-economic inequalities.

Produced by AFD's team of country-risk economists, macroeconomic country assessments provide an analysis of development processes in countries in which AFD operates. They also characterize their growth trajectory, and detect economic, social, political and financial vulnerabilities associated with these trajectories. AFD Group is thus in a position to properly measure the challenges and monitor the risks associated with each of its investments.

Emphasis is placed on developing countries, particularly in Africa, for which macroeconomic analyses are rare or infrequent. AFD seeks to complement existing production on the global economic situation, more focused on advanced economies and major emerging countries.

Find out more: Macroeconomic Analyses at AFD

Country-risk analysis is based on a close follow-up over a long period of time and rooted in a fine knowledge of local contexts. Cyclical trends, often highlighted in the news, are always examined in the light of structural trends and of the regional context in which they take place. The aim is to highlight country-specific macroeconomic issues while assessing risks against comparable time- and space-based trajectories.

Country-risk economists place the study of socio-political vulnerabilities, the growth model, the viability of public debt, external balances and the soundness of the financial system at the heart of their assessment, and give specific attention to countries' exposure to climate risks.

One of the richest countries in Africa, but also one of the most unequal in the world, Namibia had been mired in an economic slump since 2016, due to its extractive growth model, prior to the outbreak of the pandemic. The future looks less bleak. Namibia’s comparative advantage for the production of cheap green energy particularly interests developed countries, including some in the European Union. But it is especially the recent major discoveries of offshore hydrocarbon deposits which place the country at the threshold of a new era. They are already stimulating inflows of foreign direct investment, which are reaching record levels and could propel the country into the category of oil-exporting countries.

Download our publications on the macroeconomic situation of Namibia:

• “Between renewable energy and oil, the country chooses both”, in MacroDev Semestrial Panorama #57 (July 2024)

Contact: 

• Vincent Joguet, country-risk economist, AFD

Present in Armenia since 2013, the AFD group finances projects that contribute to the fight against climate change and work for just and inclusive transitions. We support the sustainable management and preservation of natural resources, energy transition, public finance management and urban services.

Produced by AFD's team of country-risk economists, macroeconomic country assessments provide an analysis of development processes in countries in which AFD operates. They also characterize their growth trajectory, and detect economic, social, political and financial vulnerabilities associated with these trajectories. AFD Group is thus in a position to properly measure the challenges and monitor the risks associated with each of its investments.

Emphasis is placed on developing countries, particularly in Africa, for which macroeconomic analyses are rare or infrequent. AFD seeks to complement existing production on the global economic situation, more focused on advanced economies and major emerging countries.

Find out more: Macroeconomic Analyses at AFD

Country-risk analysis is based on a close follow-up over a long period of time and rooted in a fine knowledge of local contexts. Cyclical trends, often highlighted in the news, are always examined in the light of structural trends and of the regional context in which they take place. The aim is to highlight country-specific macroeconomic issues while assessing risks against comparable time- and space-based trajectories.

Country-risk economists place the study of socio-political vulnerabilities, the growth model, the viability of public debt, external balances and the soundness of the financial system at the heart of their assessment, and give specific attention to countries' exposure to climate risks.

This small land-locked economy of 2.8 million inhabitants has derived positive economic benefit from the inflows of Russian migrants and capital since the outbreak of the war in Ukraine. Economic growth was robust in 2022 (12.6%) and 2023 (8.7%), the external accounts were strengthened, and public finances were consolidated. However, the country’s historically volatile economic performance remain exposed to the growing (geo)political risks in the region. The government of Nikol Pashinyan is responding to the pressure through precaution, and is seeking to secure Western support in the conflict with Azerbaijan. However, on the domestic front, it faces sharp criticism over the concessions it would grant to its neighbor in the context of the border demarcation following Baku’s military takeover of Nagorno-Karabakh in September 2023. Given the country’s vulnerability to a turnaround in financial inflows, the IMF urges caution and recommends building up additional fiscal and external buffers. This will especially be necessary because Armenia must internally manage the arrival and economic and social integration of the 100,000 refugees from Nagorno-Karabakh.

Download our publications on the macroeconomic situation of Armenia:

• “Armenia: Economic momentum faced with geopolitical tensions”, in MacroDev Semestrial Panorama #57 (July 2024)

Contact: 

• Laura Marie, country-risk economist, AFD

A major player on the regional scene, Türkiye has experienced rapid development and transformations in recent decades, creating new opportunities, but also major imbalances. Its challenge today: to combine macro-financial stability and sustainable growth with fair and sustainable development. AFD Group and its local partners in Turkey are working for more balanced and sustainable growth, as well as a transition to a lower carbon economy.

Produced by AFD's team of risk-country economists, country assessments provide an analysis of development processes in countries in which AFD operates. They also characterize their growth trajectory, and detect economic, social, political and financial vulnerabilities associated with these trajectories. AFD Group is thus in a position to properly measure the challenges and monitor the risks associated with each of its investments.

The third decade of the Erdoğan-AKP era, which is beginning at the same time as the second centenary of Türkiye, needs to place the economy, prosperity and national cohesion at the heart of priorities. The return to a credible and effective monetary policy, led by an independent Central Bank and taken up by a relatively sound banking sector per se, should be followed by fiscal consolidation from 2025 onwards, after the slippage in 2023-2024, partly due to exceptional expenditures for post-earthquake reconstruction. Reforms are also expected to improve the business environment, support non-price competitiveness, productivity, attractiveness to investors, the external position, economic growth potential, and the green transition.