Highly exposed to the effects of climate change and to the degradation of natural resources, Colombia is strengthening its climate policy, considering a green growth strategy, particularly since the 2014-2018 National Development Plan. Nevertheless, the country's dependence on raw material exports and its strong integration into international financial markets generate monetary, financial and commercial vulnerabilities. 

AFD is supporting Colombia in its efforts to tackle climate change through the GEMMES Colombia project, which is part of the third climate policy loan since 2018. The GEMMES programme, by integrating the impact of climate change into its forecasts, is developing a general theoretical model on the one hand, and national models applied to concrete cases and adapted to the characteristics of each country on the other, including the GEMMES Colombia model. 

About GEMMES: AFD and Macroeconomic Modelling Tools for the Ecological Transition

The GEMMES Colombia project, which is fully in line with AFD's commitment to strong sustainability, aims to :

• Highlight potential fragilities in the Colombian economy through a better understanding of the interactions between fiscal, monetary and trade policies and the country's NDC objectives;
• Identify the opportunities generated by the energy transition in Colombia: structural changes and financing methods under the best possible conditions;
• Quantifying the macroeconomic impact of NDC-related investments, particularly in the financial and tax sectors;
• Promoting public policy dialogue on Colombia's energy transition:

- Providing a decision-making tool for decision-makers on climate policies, with a view to limiting the consequences identified without compromising the implementation of Colombia's NDC objectives;

- By promoting the appropriation and sustainability of the GEMMES modelling tool within the partner institutions.

Read also: Diego Guevara: "We cannot develop sustainably if we lack the resources"

In addition to its specific transdisciplinary approach, which makes this project one of the few to integrate the notion of strong sustainability, the originality of GEMMES lies in its consideration of macro-financial imbalances and the impact of the low-carbon transition on all elements of the balance of payments.

Moreover, GEMMES Colombia is part of a partnership initiative that is organised around two phases:

• The first phase is based on the development of the model and the macroeconomic analysis of the Colombian NDC trajectory, in partnership with the National Planning Department (DNP) and the Ministry of Finance (MHCP) supported by AFD's modelling teams.
• The second is intended to ensure the sustainability of the project after the end of the support, with the analysis by the National University of Bogota (UNAL) of the interactions between trade, fiscal and monetary policies and the NDC trajectory, as well as the training of students in sustainable development through the Catedra course as well as in the GEMMES methodological approach.

The first results of the project have been presented at the virtual congress "Conexión DNP: transfiriendo conocimiento para innovar" on 2 and 3 December 2021. The project partners expressed their satisfaction, with the MHCP showing a particular interest in modelling after a year of remote work due to the Covid-19 pandemic.A university course on sustainable development (Catedra), partly based on the results of the GEMMES Colombia project, was launched on 7 March 2022 at UNAL to raise awareness of the issue.

In March 2022, a university course on sustainable development (Catedra), partly based on the results of the GEMMES Colombia project, was launched at UNAL. As a continuation of this initiative, a second course on the modelling of ecological transitions in the Global South was given in 2023.

The GEMMES Colombia model, enriched by academic expertise and integrated into decision-making processes through Colombian ministries, has become a key tool for public policy dialogue. These exchanges continue thanks to the GEMMES Strategic Committee, composed of the Ministry of Finance and Public Credit (MHCP), the National Planning Department (DNP), the Ministry of Mines and Energy (MME) and the Banco de la República.

 

At the request of the Colombian authorities, GEMMES was added to the MHCP macroeconomic models in 2023 and was coupled to the Energyscope energy model, an energy assessment and planning tool. Ownership of the model continued in 2024 with executive training on the use of the model provided to MHCP officials.

The research resulted in a collective book published in June 2024, presenting the scientific findings and policy recommendations from the GEMMES Colombia project: Modelling low-carbon transitions in Colombia: Macrofinancial opportunities and risks project. This work also led to the launch of a new project: the creation of a serious game to support multi-stakeholder dialogue around the NDC in Colombia.

Watch the replay of the GEMMES Colombia book launch (in Spanish)

The GEMMES Colombia model, by developing scenarios on fossil fuel exports and alternative policies for the 2023-2050 period, as well as financing scenarios of the NDC trajectory, contributes to informing decision-makers in their political strategy to fight global warming. The model also allowed the National Planning Department (DNP) to analyze the consequences of economic shocks such as the loss of the country’s investment quality, the reduction of coal exports or the bankruptcy of Evergrande in China.

The conclusion is clear: a diversification of the production structure and a transformation of public finances are essential if Colombia is to meet the challenges of a global low-carbon transition and ensure its own energy transition. The GEMMES model highlights the importance of using a combination of private investment and public green bonds to finance Colombia's climate ambition. 

Download the publications related to GEMMES Colombia: 

• Can Colombia cope with a global low-carbon transition? (June 2023)
• Low-carbon transition and global macroeconomic vulnerabilites: A multidimensional approach in tracing vulnerabilities and its application in the case of Colombia (July 2023)
• Modelling low-carbon transitions in Colombia: Macrofinancial opportunities and risks (July 2024) 

Contact:  

• Antoine Godin, economist at AFD, head of the Macroeconomic Modelling Unit

Contacto:  

• Antoine Godin, economista, responsable de la célula de modelización macroeconómica GEMMES, AFD

Elaborating development policies in line with the principles of strong sustainability is a complex issue because of the tensions that may exist between different Sustainable Development Goals. The desire to integrate 42% of renewable energies in Côte d'Ivoire's energy mix by 2030 therefore requires a reflection on the possible sustainable development trajectories, a subject at the heart of the GEMMES Côte d'Ivoire project.

This project is part of AFD's modelling work, that integrates climate dynamics, both adaptation and mitigation, into macroeconomic forecasts to inform public policy choices in this area. AFD is developing a general theoretical model on the one hand, and national models applied to specific cases and adapted to the characteristics of each country (including the GEMMES Côte d'Ivoire model) on the other hand. 

Find out more about GEMMES: AFD and Macroeconomic Modelling Tools for the Ecological Transition

This collaboration between AFD, the Ministry of Planning and Development of Côte d'Ivoire and Mines ParisTech is one of the components of the memorandum of strategic dialogue, which aims to develop research activities, their dissemination, as well as their synergies with public policies.

GEMMES Côte d'Ivoire's first goal is to better understand the interactions between the economy and socio-economical aspects. It focuses on the macroeconomic impacts of the energy transition and their ability to create favorable conditions for poverty reduction.

One of its specificities is that it aims to foster dialogue on the ecological transition between researchers and policy makers, both at national and international levels. GEMMES Côte d'Ivoire aspires to propose a tool to facilitate political decision-making, proposing transition trajectories in favor of climate. It could then provide elements contributing to the definition of an energy transition strategy for 2050 in line with Côte d'Ivoire’s poverty reduction and climate goals.

More broadly, GEMMES Côte d'Ivoire is helping to consolidate AFD’s position as a main stakeholder on low-carbon transition and strong sustainability.

GEMMES Côte d'Ivoire develops a multidimensional and transdisciplinary approach focused on the effects of the energy transition. The project is based on modelling exercises:

• Techno-economical modelling of the energy system, developed by Mines Paris Tech
• Macroeconomic modelling, developed by AFD and the Ivorian think tank CAPEC

The methodological framework of GEMMES has been adapted to meet the characteristics of the Ivorian economy. A particular focus was placed on the stability of the trade balance and public debt. Moreover, the coupling between the energy model and the macroeconomic model allows to perceive the interactions between the dynamics of energy transition and macro-financial stability. In addition, coupling can highlight the benefits of an ambitious energy transition in terms of external sustainability and job creation.

Three scenarios quantifying the long-term macroeconomic effects of the energy transition have been established. As a result, the development of renewable energy could reduce the average production cost by 20% under certain scenarios, notably through increased investment in the solar battery sector.

The development of this sector would also generate positive socio-economic impacts, concerning growth, employment and the trade balance, while increasing bioelectricity generation capacity improves the income of 4 million people in rural areas. This environment is then more favourable to the deployment of specific policies to fight poverty.

• Read also: Assoumou, E., & McIsaac, F. (2022). Côte d'Ivoire's electricity challenge in 2050: Reconciling economic development and climate commitments. Energy Policy, 160, 112681

The project has conducted the first GEMMES modelization exercise incorporated in the ongoing public policy dialogue between AFD and Ivorian public stakeholders. The project has provided the Ivorian government with models highlighting the opportunities and contradictions within the country's trajectory, between the possible energy choices, the environmental agreements to be considered and the financial implications of each scenario.

Contact : 

• Antoine Godin, economist at AFD, head of the GEMMES Macroeconomic Modelling Unit

While significant progress has been made in access to education in the Sahel since the 2000s, major challenges remain in terms of access, quality of teaching, and reducing inequalities—particularly between girls and boys, and between urban and rural areas.

In this context, many school-age children are educated through religious-based, mostly Arabic-language education systems rooted in Islam. Deeply embedded in many societies, this so-called “Arab-Islamic” education is highly diverse. It spans a continuum from highly informal, family-based units focused exclusively on religious instruction, to more formal institutions that are partially or fully integrated into public education systems, as well as a range of evolving, intermediate forms.

This widespread educational reality cannot be ignored in the design of local public education policies.

The purpose of this study is to contribute to the production of updated and relevant knowledge on Arab-Islamic education in the Sahel—a complex and deeply rooted phenomenon that is widespread across Sahelian societies but remains largely overlooked by both research and public policy. The project also aims to inform policymakers in Sahelian countries, as well as international donors, by providing them with the information needed to design and conduct education policies.

A nuanced understanding of the various forms of arabo-Islamic education is a prerequisite for any intervention—whether to regulate the most controversial practices, to integrate this educational offering into national education and vocational training policies, or to support a system that may prove particularly relevant in times of crisis, especially in the context of insecurity.

As the first large-scale study of arabo-Islamic education across six Sahelian countries, this research project was conducted by a multidisciplinary and multinational research team, coordinated by Dr. Hamidou Dia (IRD).

The project relied on extensive inventories—including inventories of existing research, grey literature, educational institutions, quantitative data, and press articles—combined with field surveys and interviews with key actors involved in Arab-Islamic education. A series of research workshops and stakeholder dialogues helped discuss research findings, feeding into the development of country reports and a regional synthesis (available in the section below). All reports followed a common framework to allow for cross-country comparisons and the identification of transnational or regional trends.

The study confirms the dynamism of Arab-Islamic education in the Sahel, shown in particular by the renewal of audiences. In Chad and Niger, more than 50% of students are girls, and the presence of the middle classes has increased. The re-emergence of Arab-Islamic universities in some countries (notably in Niger and Mali) also shows this dynamism.

The study highlights the diversity of Arab-Islamic education funding resources, which vary widely from country to country and from school to school. Depending on the context, the importance of resources coming from abroad gives a significant weight to foreign actors and dynamics in the evolution of Arab-Islamic education.

The study also shows that the positioning of this offer vis-à-vis the State varies according to the actors, schools of thought, forms of intervention and methods of financing. Depending on the type of educational offer, the place of residence or the profiles of the pupils, Arab-Islamic education can either be complementary to or a substitute for classical education, which is the case especially in regions where public services are destabilized.

You can find below the various research papers related to this research program:

• Summary report of the Arab-Islamic Education (EDUAI) in the Sahel project
• State of play of EDUAI in Niger
• State of play of EDUAI in Senegal
• Overview of EDUAI in Chad
• Overview of EDUAI in Mauritania
• State of play of EDUAI in Burkina Faso
• State of play of EDUAI in Mali

This study confirms the existence of a plural and evolutionary educational offer, with the emergence, in recent decades, of new formats, sometimes pushing towards a modernization of education, sometimes towards a return to traditions, with tensions between actors and/or important intra-national divisions around religious and linguistic issues.

The positioning of this offer vis-à-vis the State and the institutions varies. In some countries, attempts at reform by the State ended up in crystallizing tensions and confirmed the duality of the system. Nevertheless, the growth and dynamism of this educational offer in the region calls for a deeper exploration of the possibilities of establishing bridges with secular education.

Highlighting the diversity of this educational offer and the actors who carry it, this research project helped to understand better Arab-Islamic education and to guide the decision-making of AFD, its Sahelian partners or donors.

• Dr Hamidou Dia, socio-anthropologist, research officer at IRD
• Linda Zanfini, research officer at AFD

Clermont-Ferrand is a hub of expertise in development economics recognized at the French and international level, thanks to the research activities of the Foundation for Studies and Research on International Development (FERDI). Training courses aimed at executives and future decision-makers in the countries in the Global South, provided in particular by the Centre for International Development Studies and Research (CERDI) since 1976, also contribute to this recognition.

The presence of a branch of the Global Development Network (GDN) will now strengthen this hub. This international organization's mission is to strengthen research capacities in Global South countries wishing to benefit from the city's dynamic context. 

Through AFD, the French State supports the research and training activities of the Clermont International Development Hub and the establishment of the Clermont-Ferrand branch of GDN within the framework of a single project. This project aims to strengthen the ecosystem of local expertise and to develop synergies between the actors concerned for the benefit of their partners in the Global South.

This project has three complementary objectives:

• Support for the creation in Clermont-Ferrand of a branch office of the GDN, to enable the network to continue from France its flagship activities (such as its annual conference and the Global Dev blog), as well as to launch an ambitious programme to simultaneously fund research production and capacity building of African research institutions;
• Support for FERDI’s research activities, to enable the foundation to gain visibility and influence on sustainable development issues;
• Strengthening of FERDI’s training activities in partnership with the University of Clermont-Auvergne, including the Master’s degree in “Project Management for Development” (MODEV), which specifically targets executives in countries in the Global South, and setting up additional training activities (development of short and/or distance courses, support for doctoral courses in the South).

The expected impacts of the project are:

• For the actors of the Clermont Hub: strengthening the influence and outreach of the Clermont pole and its actors, allowing them to become a reference on development issues in national and international debates.
• For the partners of the Clermont hub in the Global South, and in particular in French-speaking Africa:

• Improving the skills of managers who receive training (women and men) in the management of development policies and projects;

• Strengthening the research capacities of researchers and partner institutions in the Global South on sustainable development issues, as well as their capacity to participate in public debate;

• Development and/or consolidation of networks of researchers and learners in beneficiary countries;

• Improved public policy dialogue, so that development policy-making in AFD’s partner countries can benefit from the insights of locally based research.

Contact: 

Linda Zanfini, research officer at AFD

The densely populated and lowly elevated coastline of the Gulf of Guina is particularly exposed to coastal erosion and sea-level rise. The entire coastline is currently experiencing alarming erosion rates, ranging from 1 to 15 meter per year between Côte d’Ivoire and Nigeria, mostly because of human activities. The problem is well studied and various programs aim to put in place coastal protection measures. By contrast mid- and long-term vulnerability to sea-level rise triggered by climate change has received less attention in this region. 

In addition, to assess the various risks induced by sea-level rise, it is also necessary to consider land surface movements. The gradual lowering of the land surface in some places is called subsidence. The phenomenon is widespread at the global scale, especially in coastal megacities and deltas: 51 to 71% of present-day relative sea-level rise experienced by people worldwide is actually caused by subsidence. The rate can reach several centimeters per year in some places, however coastal subsidence is globally critically under-quantified, and the Gulf of Guinea region is no exception to this.

This research program aims to fill the lacune in knowledge on coastal land subsidence and relative sea-level rise along the Gulf of Guinea. It will provide useful space-borne quantifications of current coastal subsidence rates, assess the driving forces of land subsidence and provide first projections of potential future subsidence using numerical models. 

Impact will further be created by collaborating with local institutes, connecting to other projects and disseminating findings, data and tools to local stakeholders. 

One of the long-term objectives is also to create awareness and agenda setting of this issue of relative sea-level rise in the region, in order to support sustainable development or adaptation projects in coastal areas and policymaking in the region. 

The first working group will assess current subsidence rates for the whole coastline, using satellite data to monitor vertical land movement over several years. The results will be combined to satellite elevation data to provide a first assessment of the areas that could be flooded in future decades. 

The second working group will focus on the city of Lagos and surroundings, to provide an in-depth analysis of subsidence and to understand drivers and processes. The research team will build a process-based numerical model of subsidence to provide projections of future subsidence rates according to different scenarios.

Then, the methods developed for Lagos will also be applied to 3 or 4 other areas, coastal megacities or deltas, identified as “hotspots” for relative sea-level rise by the first working group. 

Knowledge exchange events (seminars and workshops) will also be regularly organized, to disseminate research findings and build a regional community of interest on subsidence and relative sea-level rise. 

Results will be shared through scientific papers, technical reports, on-line databases and policy briefs. They will provide valuable information for policymakers and coastal (infrastructural) development projects potentially impacted by relative sea-level rise. In particular, results will help to better calibrate coastal adaptation measures and may also identify areas where the efficiency of natural coastal defences could fail in the future. Understanding the drivers of subsidence will also help to identify potential mitigation measures. The project will also foster public policy dialogue on coastal vulnerability, to favor adaptation projects.