The war in Ukraine, ongoing for more than a decade, is generating a growing need for knowledge about the country. Indeed, in order to act, many French public, civil-society, and media actors – including AFD – must draw on solid, up-to-date expertise. Yet while many researchers work on contemporary Ukraine, they are scattered across different research units with varied geographic and thematic focuses. Moreover, a significant proportion of them are in precarious employment situations, which reduces their visibility. The challenge is therefore twofold: to structure and strengthen an academic network, while better mobilizing its members' expertise to address the challenges of the post-war period.

Supported by AFD, the French Ministry of Armed Forces, and the French Ministry for Europe and Foreign Affairs, the Observatory of Contemporary Ukraine was launched to address a twofold challenge: structuring a network of Francophone researchers in Ukrainian studies, and mobilizing their expertise to better respond to requests from French public authorities. For AFD Group, which operates in Ukraine, this high-quality expertise is essential to inform its action.

The Observatory of Contemporary Ukraine organizes its work around one central question: what are the key issues for understanding Ukraine’s post-war future? Two complementary strands seek to decode the country's profound transformations:

• Military dimension and the transition out of war: the complexity of mobilization and demobilization processes; changes in the practices and means of warfare; and issues relating to reconstruction, demographic trends, and memory work;
• Structural transformations (economic, social, etc.) of Ukrainian society in this context of war.

The Observatory will seek both to better disseminate and to deepen existing work, while encouraging the exploration of emerging topics that remain little documented

See also : Ukraine: Resisting, Rebuilding and Innovating

To carry out its mission, the Observatory will develop a range of tools:

• Scientific monitoring of knowledge produced on Ukraine;
• Mapping of Francophone researchers in Ukrainian studies to build a network of specialists;
• Organization of events to foster dialogue between academia and public authorities and public-interest actors;
• Expertise: facilitating and coordinating the production of studies and other forms of expert input at the request of public authorities;
• Information: producing analytical briefs, organizing scientific and outreach events, and promoting researchers to the media.

Over two years, the research team will produce or organize, in coordination with AFD:

• Three seminars a year, one of which will be hosted at AFD and will result in a policy paper;
• Ten briefs a year for the general public, published on the Observatory of Contemporary Ukraine's website;
• An annual thematic conference, for both academic and operational audiences.;

At the end of the project, a joint discussion will be organized with the Observatory on Reconstruction in the Middle East, another AFD-supported research project on post-conflict reconstruction issues.

• Anna Colin Lebedev, Associate professor of political science at the University of Paris-Nanterre and scientific director of the Observatory on Contemporary Ukraine
• Bertrand de Franqueville, Ph.D. in political science from the University of Ottawa and chief operating officer of the Observatory on Contemporary Ukraine
• Elodie Riche, Research officer, AFD

For decades, economists have debated the role and necessity of public banks in development financing. In 2020, the creation of the Finance in Common System (FiCS), which brings together more than 540 PDBs worldwide, has reinvigorated these debates, placing these actors at the heart of academic thinking and international policy dialogue.

For AFD Group, PDBs are strategic partners. Strengthening financial systems is one of the Group’s top priorities: expanding access to financing, supporting the transition toward more sustainable financial models, and strengthening the resilience and stability of financial institutions. 

In 2024, AFD Group committed close to €3 billion to financial systems and PDBs account for nearly half of the financing devoted to this area. Beyond the volumes mobilized, the challenge is to strengthen the collective ability to better understand how development financing can respond to increasingly complex and interconnected challenges. 

AFD supports the production and dissemination of research aimed at analyzing the role of public development banks in the development financing architecture. 

This activity, which falls under the priority research area “Geopolitics and Development Finance,” is structured around two complementary pillars: 

Since 2020, members of the Global Research Network (GRN) have collectively published nearly 100 original research articles. To structure and consolidate this work, AFD supported the production of the Public Development Banks Reference Book (2025), with support from the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs (UNDESA) and the Finance in Common (FiCS) secretariat. Published by Pearson on the occasion of the 4th International Conference on Financing for Development (FfD4), this book is a landmark contribution to the academic literature on public development banks.

The program also enabled the development of the first database dedicated internationally to public development banks, co-designed by Peking University, the Fondation pour les Études et Recherches sur le Développement International (FERDI), and AFD. This resource is now a reference tool for researchers, financial institutions, and policymakers. By offering a harmonized typology of public financial institutions and internationally comparable data, it facilitates comparative analysis, strengthens transparency, and helps better track the evolution of public development banks and development finance institutions.

Findings from the program are regularly presented at international conferences and dialogues, particularly at Finance in Common (FiCS) summits. As part of France’s G7 presidency, AFD organized the first conference international academic dedicated exclusively to public development banks in 2026.

Discover also: Public Development Banks: What Research Tells Us, and Why It Matters 

The 2026 research conference provided an overview of current knowledge and research perspectives on public development banks. Drawing on the most recent academic work, a publication prepared following the conference provides a synthesis of the main lessons from the literature and highlights the current challenges these institutions face.

It sets out recommendations for key stakeholders, in particular finance ministers (in their capacity as shareholders and supervisors of PDBs), PDB leaders, and regulatory authorities. These recommendations aim to strengthen the role of public development banks as catalysts for long-term investment in support of national priorities and the delivery of global public goods. 

Lebanon, Syria, Gaza: the Middle East is home to some of the world's most complex reconstruction efforts, taking place in conflict and post-conflict settings and involving significant financing challenges. For Syria alone, the World Bank estimates reconstruction costs at 216 billion dollars.

However, the challenges are not solely financial or technical: these reconstruction processes unfold within complex political, economic and social environments, involving many stakeholders whose interests and approaches may sometimes diverge. To engage effectively in this complex geopolitical landscape, a thorough understanding of the operating environments is essential – not only for AFD Group, but also for other development actors.

Led by IFRI and coordinated by AFD, this observatory project analyses the state of destruction and the prospects for reconstruction across three territories: Gaza, Lebanon and Syria. Its aims to :

1. Understand the local dynamics (social, political and economic) of reconstruction : What are the actual needs? What is the state of the social fabric? Who are the key stakeholders and how do they interact?
2. Identify practical and feasible reconstruction pathways : What positions are the governments of these countries taking? What role can the private sector play, and how can public-private partnerships be structured? What role can civil society organisations and diasporas play?
3. Compare the positioning of external actors (European institutions and states, Israel, the United States, Gulf countries, Turkey, China, Iran and Russia) : What reconstruction plans are being proposed, and what is the level of their involvement? How do diplomacy, reconstruction and economic interests interact? Do these actors prioritise humanitarian assistance or reconstruction? What is France’s position?

To stay as close as possible to developments in this fast-moving context, a monitoring system will be established to map reconstruction projections and track decisions made by the various countries involved. IFRI will produce maps whenever relevant to support a better understanding of the broader challenges.

Three field missions will be carried out directly by IFRI researchers and/or researchers based in the region. The methodology will primarily rely on interviews, conducted either in person or remotely when travel is not possible. Syria is a particularly relevant case in this regard, as territorial disparities pose a major challenge for operators.

Operating in an interactive manner, the observatory will remain open to regular and on-request exchanges with French institutions that share an interest in these questions.

The project deliverables will include:

• Field mission reports with an oral presentation of findings;
• Publications on cross-cutting themes within IFRI’s publication series;
• A final report, covering all three reconstruction efforts and framed around a central research question, published in the collections of Éditions Agence française de développement;
• A final conference that may introduce comparative perspectives (Ukraine, Africa).

• Dorothée SCHMID, Program Manager for Turkey/the Middle East, IFRI
• Elodie RICHE, Research Officer, AFD

Ten years after the signing of the Paris Agreement, and five years into the Kunming-Montreal Agreement, he global economy is entering a period of profound structural change, often called “mid-transition”. Climate change, biodiversity loss, energy system transitions and shifting geopolitical dynamics are increasingly shaping economic development, financial stability and public finances. Climate shocks are already affecting fiscal balances and investment needs, while ecosystem degradation threatens key economic sectors such as agriculture, water and natural resources. At the same time, the transition toward low-carbon economies is transforming supply chains, trade relations and industrial strategies.

For Ministries of Finance, these dynamics are emerging as core macroeconomic risks while fostering new opportunities. Yet existing policy frameworks often struggle to integrate climate and nature fat-tailed risks (explication ou lien) into a systemic framework. Developing forward-looking economic scenarios that capture these interactions is therefore essential to support resilient fiscal planning and long-term development strategies.

It is in this context that AFD has launched the Climate and Nature Economic Policy Scenarios (CNEPS) initiative, a multilateral platform for the development of forward-looking economic scenarios to help policymakers anticipate these transformations and inform economic policy choices. It joins forces with an ecosystem of institutional, regional and academic partners to foster a shared language on plausible futures and related resilient economic policies.

The Climate and Nature Economic Policy Scenarios (CNEPS) initiative aims to develop forward-looking economic scenarios that help integrate climate change, biodiversity loss and transition dynamics into macroeconomic policy analysis. The project focuses on three main objectives:

• Technical integration: integrate climate and nature fat-tailed risks within macroeconomic policy frameworks, exploring nonlinear shocks, tipping points and geopolitical regime shifts, while building on existing structured country collaborations of AFD as well as regional and institutional partners.
• Policy interface: translate joint global scenarios into implications for fiscal policy, debt sustainability, industrial strategies and investment planning, while supporting champion countries in developing resilient national financing strategies.
• Coalition building: mobilise Ministries of Finance, Public Development Banks and academic partners, and connect existing finance-minister and public development banking platforms to scale impact and strengthen policy dialogue.

The approach brings together global analytical work and country-level collaboration to explore how climate and nature risks, transition dynamics and geopolitical shifts could affect national economies and public finances.

The initiative builds on partnerships between research institutions, development finance actors and Ministries of Finance in participating countries. Academic partners contribute modelling expertise and scenario design, while Ministries of Finance and Public Development Banks provide policy perspectives and help identify the most relevant economic questions and applications.

The project mobilises an international knowledge network and works with partner countries to ensure that the scenarios developed respond to concrete policy needs and strengthen local analytical capacity.

For this project, AFD is partnering with the University of Exeter.

The CNEPS initiative will deliver a first generation of forward-looking economic scenarios exploring how climate change, biodiversity loss and global transition dynamics could affect national economies and public finances.

Key outputs will include a first mid-transition analytical report presenting emerging global trends and systemic risks, as well as a first set of global scenarios developed with champion countries and regional partners. These scenarios will be translated into country-level assessments exploring implications for resilient fiscal policy, debt sustainability and investment strategies.

The project will also support participating countries in developing a first series of national CNEPS strategies aimed at informing resilient financing pathways and long-term economic planning.

Beyond analytical outputs, the initiative will contribute to policy dialogue and capacity strengthening through workshops, regional exchanges and engagement with international platforms bringing together Ministries of Finance and Public Development Banks.

• Etienne Espagne, Senior Economist, AFD
• Jean-François Mercure, Professor of Climate Policy, Exeter University
• Sam Mugume Koojo, Deputy Co-Chair CFMCA, Country Platform Hub, PAFCA
• Laura Sabogal Reyes, FiCS