The densely populated and lowly elevated coastline of the Gulf of Guina is particularly exposed to coastal erosion and sea-level rise. The entire coastline is currently experiencing alarming erosion rates, ranging from 1 to 15 meter per year between Côte d’Ivoire and Nigeria, mostly because of human activities. The problem is well studied and various programs aim to put in place coastal protection measures. By contrast mid- and long-term vulnerability to sea-level rise triggered by climate change has received less attention in this region. 

In addition, to assess the various risks induced by sea-level rise, it is also necessary to consider land surface movements. The gradual lowering of the land surface in some places is called subsidence. The phenomenon is widespread at the global scale, especially in coastal megacities and deltas: 51 to 71% of present-day relative sea-level rise experienced by people worldwide is actually caused by subsidence. The rate can reach several centimeters per year in some places, however coastal subsidence is globally critically under-quantified, and the Gulf of Guinea region is no exception to this.

This research program aims to fill the lacune in knowledge on coastal land subsidence and relative sea-level rise along the Gulf of Guinea. It will provide useful space-borne quantifications of current coastal subsidence rates, assess the driving forces of land subsidence and provide first projections of potential future subsidence using numerical models. 

Impact will further be created by collaborating with local institutes, connecting to other projects and disseminating findings, data and tools to local stakeholders. 

One of the long-term objectives is also to create awareness and agenda setting of this issue of relative sea-level rise in the region, in order to support sustainable development or adaptation projects in coastal areas and policymaking in the region. 

The first working group will assess current subsidence rates for the whole coastline, using satellite data to monitor vertical land movement over several years. The results will be combined to satellite elevation data to provide a first assessment of the areas that could be flooded in future decades. 

The second working group will focus on the city of Lagos and surroundings, to provide an in-depth analysis of subsidence and to understand drivers and processes. The research team will build a process-based numerical model of subsidence to provide projections of future subsidence rates according to different scenarios.

Then, the methods developed for Lagos will also be applied to 3 or 4 other areas, coastal megacities or deltas, identified as “hotspots” for relative sea-level rise by the first working group. 

Knowledge exchange events (seminars and workshops) will also be regularly organized, to disseminate research findings and build a regional community of interest on subsidence and relative sea-level rise. 

Results will be shared through scientific papers, technical reports, on-line databases and policy briefs. They will provide valuable information for policymakers and coastal (infrastructural) development projects potentially impacted by relative sea-level rise. In particular, results will help to better calibrate coastal adaptation measures and may also identify areas where the efficiency of natural coastal defences could fail in the future. Understanding the drivers of subsidence will also help to identify potential mitigation measures. The project will also foster public policy dialogue on coastal vulnerability, to favor adaptation projects.

• Marie-Noëlle Woillez, research officer on climate change impacts, AFD
• Marine Canesi, research officer, AFD

Addressing persistent inequalities in income and other dimensions of wellbeing is a key policy objective of the Sustainable Development Goal 10. Multilateral and bilateral donor agencies have been directing their efforts towards promoting good governance, human and economic development, fighting hunger and reducing inequality. 

The increase in development funding towards inequality reduction is accompanied by a need to monitor progress on the SDG 10 but most importantly, by the need to evaluate the contribution of development towards achieving this goal. However, measuring the distributional impacts of development cooperation projects is a challenging task due to a myriad of factors, including the effects that domestic redistributive policies, the structure of labour markets and other factors, such as institutions, have on inequality. The methodology developed by Morabito et al. enables the analysis of the potential contributions of development projects on inequality by looking primarily at the extent to which they disproportionally benefit the most vulnerable through a mix of analytical tools (a scoreboard, a statistical analysis of development projects based on the Equity Tool, a fiscal incidence analysis).

This methodology has first been tested on three development projects funded by AFD in Cameroon, Colombia and Tunisia as part of the first phase of the Research Facility on Inequalities. 

 

This project was part of the first phase of the Research Facility on Inequalities, coordinated by AFD and funded by the European Commission's Directorate-General for International Partnerships over the 2017-2020 period. The first phase of the Facility has led to the conduct of 22 research projects and the publication of around 100 research papers and policy briefs.

A second phase of the research project was launched in 2022 with the aim to extend the initial phase, to further test the validity of the methodology with respect to income and other forms of inequalities and to develop the guidelines for an inequality marker.

The initial phase of the  project aimed at piloting the application of the methodology developed by the researchers on three projects funded by the AFD: 

• A programme supporting urban housing improvements in Tunisia;
• A programme focusing on capacity-building of Small- and Medium-Sized Enterprises in Cameroon;
• A budget support operation aimed at supporting a health sector reform in Colombia.

The objective was to test the methodology and evaluate the relevance of its results, and, based on these findings, to review and adjust the methodology itself.

The second phase of the project aimed:

• To develop the guidelines for an inequality marker for development cooperation ;
• To further test the methodology on four AFD and EU development programmes:
  • A programme promoting sustainable access to electricity for the unserved poor rural populations in Benin;
  • A programme improving the health and living conditions of the inhabitants of the rural district of Isingiro (Uganda) and its refugee camps;
  • A programme facilitating trade between Ethiopia and Djibouti and enabling businesses and producers, as well as the most vulnerable populations, to benefit from these improvements;
  • A programme contributing to the adaptation of the communities to climate change in Vietnam. 

The initial study identified whether programmes’ beneficiaries of the three selected interventions belonged to the bottom 40% of the wealth distribution, through a mix of analytical tools:

• First, a scoreboard that assessed whether or not inequality reduction was a central objective of development programmes; 
• Second, the Equity Tool, which helped assess the position of direct beneficiaries within the national (urban or rural) wealth distribution;
• Third, the Commitment for Equity Tool, which helped estimate the distributional impact of general or sectoral budget support.

The methodological steps of the second phase of the research project were the following:

• Refining and upgrading the inequality markers and the scoreboard to provide clear benchmarks and indicators, aligned with evaluation approaches used by the European Commission, to assess whether development interventions focus on the poorest bottom 40% individuals, households or vulnerable groups that are targeted by specific development policies;
• Extending the scope of the Equity Tool questionnaire to include questions that capture the distribution of projects beneficiaries among vulnerable groups (women, ethnic, religious minorities, etc.);
• Applying the revised methodology to the four case studies.

Results of the first phase of the project:



Overall, the results underscore the importance of considering a pro-poor targeting ex-ante when designing development cooperation interventions that explicitly (or implicitly) aim to contribute to the reduction of inequalities in partner countries. The main strength of the methodology is that it allows an assessment of the potential reach of interventions for the bottom 40 percent of the income distribution. Therefore, the information provided thanks to this methodology can be critical to fine-tune policies before they are implemented and maximize their redistributive impact.



You may find the research paper here: The distributional impacts of development cooperation projects

 

Results of the second phase of the project:



The second phase of this project resulted in :

• The elaboration of guidelines for the implementation of the methodology, which were used to develop the European Commission's Inequality Marker. The I-Marker assesses whether, and to what extent, inequality reduction is an objective of development intervention. For this purpose, a set of criteria has been developed to establish if: - I-0: Inequality reduction is not targeted; - I-1: Inequality reduction is a significant objective; - I-2: Inequality reduction is the principal objective. The I-Marker focuses on the bottom (poorest) 40% or socio-economically disadvantaged individuals, households or groups. Watch the video on the Inequality Marker for more information ;
• A report on the testing of the methodology on the four case studies (available soon).

This project highlighted the importance of identifying direct and indirect beneficiaries of the projects, but also, more broadly, of having a complete understanding of the development cooperation interventions, which are being analyzed, especially their objectives and conditionalities. 

Equally important is the involvement of key stakeholders to communicate the objectives, scope and limitations of the studies. In some cases, the inclusion of a qualitative component in the form of interviews, consultations, or eventually field missions, may be required to ensure the successful implementation and completion of studies.

Contact:

• Anda David, Research Officer, AFD

Contacto:

• Anda David, encargada de investigación, AFD