Ecuador is a middle-income country facing many challenges, including significant political instability, declining socio-economic performance since the fall in oil prices in 2014-2015, and a macroeconomic situation vulnerable to exogenous shocks. To support a sustainable and less volatile development trajectory, AFD works in many sectors: water and sanitation, education, energy transition, sustainable urban development and support for civil society action.

Produced by AFD's team of risk-country economists, country assessments provide an analysis of development processes in countries in which AFD operates. They also characterize their growth trajectory, and detect economic, social, political and financial vulnerabilities associated with these trajectories. AFD Group is thus in a position to properly measure the challenges and monitor the risks associated with each of its investments. Emphasis is placed on developing countries, particularly in Africa, for which macroeconomic analyses are rare or infrequent. AFD seeks to complement existing production on the global economic situation, more focused on advanced economies and major emerging countries.

Country-risk analysis is based on a close follow-up over a long period of time and rooted in a fine knowledge of local contexts. Cyclical trends, often highlighted in the news, are always examined in the light of structural trends and of the regional context in which they take place. The aim is to highlight country-specific macroeconomic issues while assessing risks against comparable time- and space-based trajectories.

Country-risk economists place the study of socio-political vulnerabilities, the growth model, the viability of public debt, external balances and the soundness of the financial system at the heart of their assessment, and give specific attention to countries' exposure to climate risks.

All of our publications on the macroeconomic situation of Ecuador are available in the MacroDev series.

Access the publications

The fifth largest economy in sub-Saharan Africa, Angola is a strategic country for the AFD Group in Southern Africa. In a context of oil dependence and persistent socio-economic challenges, AFD is addressing the sustainable development priorities of its local partners, in particular by supporting improved access to water and electricity. The Group also supports Angola’s economic and financial transition by supporting macroeconomic reforms, the modernization of vocational training and higher education, and the strengthening of the entrepreneurial culture. It also promotes the development of a strong agricultural sector, generating more inclusive growth and less dependent on the vagaries of the oil sector.

Produced by AFD's team of country-risk economists, macroeconomic country assessments provide an analysis of development processes in countries in which AFD operates. They also characterize their growth trajectory, and detect economic, social, political and financial vulnerabilities associated with these trajectories. AFD Group is thus in a position to properly measure the challenges and monitor the risks associated with each of its investments.

Emphasis is placed on developing countries, particularly in Africa, for which macroeconomic analyses are rare or infrequent. AFD seeks to complement existing production on the global economic situation, more focused on advanced economies and major emerging countries.

Country-risk analysis is based on a close follow-up over a long period of time and rooted in a fine knowledge of local contexts. Cyclical trends, often highlighted in the news, are always examined in the light of structural trends and of the regional context in which they take place. The aim is to highlight country-specific macroeconomic issues while assessing risks against comparable time- and space-based trajectories.

Country-risk economists place the study of socio-political vulnerabilities, the growth model, the viability of public debt, external balances and the soundness of the financial system at the heart of their assessment, and give specific attention to countries' exposure to climate risks.

All of our publications on the macroeconomic situation of Angola are available in the MacroDev series.

Access our publications

Public actors need to monitor the state of the environment in order to assess the effectiveness of their actions, prioritize management policies and measures, and thus objectively establish their contribution to the conservation of natural capital. To do so, they must be able to rely on science-based standards to identify the thresholds at which environmental functions can be considered sustainable.

The ESGAP (Environmental Sustainability Gap) is an innovative tool for assessing the condition of a territory’s environmental functions and how sustainable they are. For all critical components of natural capital in the territory concerned (air or water quality, pollution, forest resources, fisheries, etc.), this indicator calculates the difference between their current state and a state that would be sustainable (i.e., a state compatible with the sustainable functioning of the processes necessary for the preservation of life, human activities and well-being). This allows for the calculation of the “environmental sustainability gap”, which highlights the path to environmental sustainability. This can then serve as a guide for public policies to estimate and preserve the critical functions of the natural capital of a given territory. ESGAP has already been tested in New Caledonia, Kenya and Vietnam.

Within the framework of the ECOPRONAT research programme, AFD aims to develop methodologies for assessing strong sustainability, that is, adopting demanding criteria concerning the non-substituability of natural capital by other forms of capital (physical among others) in a territory or country. AFD also wants to promote their use in international frameworks and contribute to emerging international standards on the good ecological state of ecosystems.

Find out more about ECOPRONAT

Building on the previous work of University College London (UCL) on the application of ESGAP in countries of the Global South, this research project led by UCL aims to implement the ESGAP framework in Colombia and South Africa. It will test its relevance in fostering public policy dialogue in these two countries that already have a regulatory framework and natural resources management, but where not all data on biodiversity is available. 

More specifically, this project has four objectives: 

1. Developing the ESGAP components related to biodiversity and the state of ecosystems that could be used by Colombian and South African governments, and promoting the use of science-based targets for ecosystem maintenance;
2. Promoting reflection on strong sustainability in Colombia and South Africa through the ESGAP framework, by assessing whether the activities carried out in these countries are within the safe operating space for humanity;
3. Clarifying how the ESGAP framework aligns, complements and adds value to other types of existing sustainability indicators that national governments are already using;
4. Strengthening the capacity of partner countries to implement the ESGAP framework beyond this research project. 

The ESGAP framework is based on a dashboard that provides information on changes in the functional state of 23 components of the environment, focusing on the gaps that exist between these changes and the objectives of maintaining or achieving a "good environmental state". These components cover the 4 main categories of critical and essential environmental functions: resource provision, pollution reprocessing, biodiversity and human health. The scores for each of the twenty-three components are then aggregated to form a synthetic indicator and a dynamic indicator.

The research activities in the two pilot countries is carried out by researchers from Stellenbosch University (South Africa) and the National University of Colombia (UNAL). Capacity building will include training four postgraduate students as well as awareness-raising activities targeting policymakers and other stakeholders, in order for them to take ownership of the ESGAP and use it during public policy formulation.

The research teams will produce scientific papers on the relationship between the ESGAP framework and other sustainability indicator initiatives, as well as on the work and calculations of the ESGAP indicators carried out in each country, comparing the cases of Colombia and South Africa. A specific report will be produced on indicators of the state of biodiversity and ecosystems as well as the identification of data sources for the two countries studied.

In addition, an international workshop will be organized to present the complementarities between the ESGAP framework and relevant initiatives of existing sustainability indicators.

Finally, the research team intends to produce several documents for decision-makers and public policy actors:

• A summary of the review of biodiversity indicators and the state of ecosystems, which may be useful for negotiations at the Conferences of the Parties (COPs) to the Convention on Biological Diversity and for the design of national biodiversity strategies and action plans (NBSAPs);
• A webinar with a webinar report on the relationship between the ESGAP framework and other international sustainability reporting initiatives;
• A summary for decision-makers in each partner country on the rationale of the strong sustainability development approach and the methodology and ESGAP indicators that enable it to be implemented.

Download the publications related to the project: 

• The SDGs Provide Limited Evidence That Environmental Policies Are Delivering Multiple Ecological and Social Benefits, Earth's Future vol.12 (May 2024)
• Enhancing Environmental Sustainability Through the Environmental Sustainability Gap (ESGAP) Framework in Colombia, Policy Dialogues n°67, Editions Agence française de développement (October 2024)
• Strong sustainability in the SEEA and the wider indicator landscape, One Ecosystem (May 2025)
• Assessing environmental sustainability in Colombia: Metrics and policy recommendations, Environmental and Sustainability Indicators n°27 (September 2025)

A "Research Conversations" webinar presented the results of the articles to the scientific community in November 2024:

As the field of research on green infrastructure and nature-based solutions in cities expands, the potential of urban agriculture in the production of ecosystem services remains unexplored. Beyond the benefits of increasing food supply and reducing the vulnerability of urban populations, urban food systems can be at the heart of policies to develop nature-based solutions. This project studies the potential benefits of these systems in the perimeter of Bengaluru, an Indian city with a strong heritage in terms of urban agriculture.

Taking the case study of Bengaluru, this project led by IIHS explores how and why urban food systems, in rapidly developing urban and peri-urban areas, can be seen as nature-based urban solutions that bring benefits to ecosystems and society.  

Two research questions are addressed: 

1. What is the scope and outcomes of urban agriculture for ecosystem services (including pollination) and societal well-being (such as food and nutritional security of the most vulnerable populations)?
2. How can we use different co-production pathways across the science-policy-citizen interface to scale up NBS around sustainable urban agricultural practices?

The research methodology is based on three main work packages: 

1. Synthesis of scientific knowledge on the potential of NBS and existing practices at various scales, and particularly within a chosen ward of Bengaluru with the deployment of pilot interventions;
2. Incubation and capacity building: incubating novel NBS ideas and experiments related to pollinator friendly and water conserving urban agriculture, and capacity building through the training of various stakeholder groups;
3. Scaling impact by identifying and engaging with different stakeholders, including city-level policy and decision makers, right from the start of the project to ensure the scaling of impact throughout the project.

The expected results of these projects are: 

• Academic results on sustainable urban food systems in the context of rapidly urbanizing countries from the Global South, on urban NBS experiences and their effects on ecosystem services (including pollination);
• Knowledge outputs for urban decision-makers on the integration of NBS in urban planning;
• Capacity building and teaching materials on multidisciplinary approaches to urban sustainability.  

The project is also testing nature-based solutions aimed at strengthening the resilience of food systems in Bangalore. 

The research team aims to show how nature-based solutions (NbS) can address urban water security challenges in the Global South — a topic that remains underexplored in the scientific literature, which is still largely focused on the Global North. Drawing on expert discussions and a literature review, they identify the specific characteristics of these contexts (environmental, socio-economic, governance-related, technical capacity, etc.), as well as the barriers and opportunities for implementing these solutions. The goal is to propose concrete avenues to support the more effective and equitable adoption of NbS in cities of the Global South.

Latin America is the second most urbanized region in the world, with 81% of its population concentrated there. This strong urbanization, its rapid growth and the weakness of urban planning policies affect areas of high ecological and environmental value. However, natural ecosystems can be a source of solutions for those involved in urban design and development, in particular to respond to the risks generated or exacerbated by climate change.

Understanding nature-based solutions (NBS), studying their implementation conditions and analyzing their integration into public policies is therefore necessary to ensure the livability of cities in the long term. While NBS and green infrastructure are still recent in the urban landscape, initiatives have been deployed for several years and are a privileged source of data to exploit. 

The ENSLAC (Enabling Nature based solutions Scale-up in Latin American Cities) project aims to analyse the mechanisms that enable the scale-up of nature-based solutions implementation in Latin American cities, drawing on 15 case studies in Peru, Colombia and Ecuador. This research approach aims to: 

• Analyze the challenges of ecological restoration for the management of risks related to the impacts of climate change in urban areas;
• Understand the levers for using NBS as a tool for urban planning and development;
• Identify the temporal, technical, cultural, political, social, financial and cooperative processes that have enabled large-scale NBS-based projects;
• Assess the influence of national or supranational strategies and policies on NBS development;
• Disseminate the knowledge produced by focusing on formats and channels that can be used for the training of urban development actors. 

To explore these issues, Yes Innovation, based in Quito, works with the Humboldt Institute for Biological Resources Research, an institution linked to the Ministry of the Environment of Colombia, and Periferia Territorios Vivos, a Peruvian organization specialized in urban planning with an ecological approach. 

This research project uses two analytical tools (depending on the case study and the available field data):

1. Temporal and spatial analysis (known as BA/CI, which refers to a Before/After and Conservation/Intervention analysis);
2. Comparative analysis between case studies on NBS and reference cases of comparable characteristics but without implementation of NBS. 

The ENSLAC research project aims to: 

• Understand mechanisms that enable scale-up of nature-based solutions as a tool for urban and peri-urban planning;
• Identify replicability levers of these NBS for Latin American cities;
• Produce training materials for urban development actors. 

The research team presented its findings during a webinar from the Research Conversations series. The replay is available below (in French and Spanish).

Public actors need to monitor the state of the environment in order to assess the effectiveness of their actions, prioritize management policies and measures, and thus objectively establish their contribution to the conservation of natural capital. To do so, they must be able to rely on science-based standards to identify the thresholds at which environmental functions can be considered sustainable.

The ESGAP (Environmental Sustainability Gap) is an innovative tool for assessing the condition of a territory’s environmental functions and how sustainable they are. For all critical components of natural capital in the territory concerned (air or water quality, pollution, forest resources, fisheries, etc.), this indicator calculates the difference between their current state and a state that would be sustainable (i.e., a state compatible with the sustainable functioning of the processes necessary for the preservation of life, human activities and well-being). This allows for the calculation of the “environmental sustainability gap”, which highlights the path to environmental sustainability. This can then serve as a guide for public policies to estimate and preserve the critical functions of the natural capital of a given territory. ESGAP has already been tested in New Caledonia, Kenya and Vietnam.

Within the framework of the ECOPRONAT research programme, AFD aims to develop methodologies for assessing strong sustainability, that is, adopting demanding criteria concerning the non-substituability of natural capital by other forms of capital (physical among others) in a territory or country. AFD also wants to promote their use in international frameworks and contribute to emerging international standards on the good ecological state of ecosystems.

Find out more about ECOPRONAT

The ESGAP pilot project recently conducted in Vietnam made it possible to measure the state of the environmental functions of this country. It identified fisheries resources, soil erosion, air and water pollution as the most degraded dimensions. 

It appears that some economic activities can put pressure on these different environmental functions, while other activities depend on their proper functioning. Developing the ESGAP framework is necessary to go further, by integrating the linkages that exist between the economy and the environment and identifying which human activities are concerned. 

In order to do this, the research team will try to link ESGAP measures to socio-economic activities and build a monetary ESGAP. The aim will be to assess the physical risks associated with certain economic activities on the basis of scenarios of environmental pressures (such as the breakdown of supply of certain essential environmental services, for example in agriculture). The development of these new applications of the ESGAP framework aims to guide policy makers in designing more sustainable development paths. 

The research project will be conducted in two phases: 

• The first step will consist in building a “monetary” ESGAP that measures the cost (expressed in monetary units) needed to achieve a sustainable environmental state. This cost is considered an unpaid ecological debt: it corresponds to the cost of effective measures that society would have to spend to achieve a good ecological state. It will be calculated as an abatement cost, that is, the expenditure necessary for human activities (such as production and consumption) in Vietnam to reduce their environmental pressures to a level that does not result in degradation of natural capital (or to an acceptable level, considering the good condition standards considered by the ESGAP).
• The second phase will use the modeling framework developed in the first phase, and assess how different public policies can improve Vietnam’s environmental sustainability by 2035, as well as mitigate the economic risks associated with the loss of the country’s natural capital. First, the team will develop scenarios to determine which interventions can improve Vietnam’s ecological status. Secondly, it will assess the extent to which economic risks related to biodiversity (due to the dependence of the Vietnamese economy on ecosystem services) can be mitigated through these interventions.

Since this study is considered experimental research, the different elements outlined in the research proposal and intermediate results may be adjusted throughout the study based on different factors – such as access to data, data quality, difficulties in implementing certain aspects of the methodology, or unsustainable or misleading results.

The team will produce a synthesis of the study, that will be used as a working document for communication purposes. The final deliverable will outline the methodology, database used and main results of the monetary ESGAP applied in Vietnam and the physical risk assessment methodology for the Vietnamese economy. This final deliverable will explore the relevance of ESGAP for the implementation of public policies aimed at achieving a good state of environmental conditions and future research pathways to link ESGAP measures to socio-economic activities.