African agriculture faces a triple challenge: producing enough to feed a growing population with increasing consumption of animal-based products, while reducing the use of synthetic inputs (chemical fertilizers, pesticides, etc.) and preserving natural ecosystems.

In this context, agroecology—which relies on natural processes rather than industrial inputs to maintain soil fertility—emerges as an alternative to conventional agriculture. The latter, which drove increases in agricultural yields during the “Green Revolution” of the 20th century, is now widely considered unsustainable due to its impacts on ecosystems and public health.

However, to fertilize soils, the ecological transition requires sourcing nitrogen, a key nutrient for crops, beyond cultivated land. In agroecology, nitrogen comes from natural sources such as legume crops, animal manure, and compost, which themselves require space. As a result, this can have significant implications for land use: meeting agricultural needs while adhering to agroecological principles may lead to an expansion of agricultural and grazing land, encroaching on natural areas (particularly forests, grasslands, and savannas). Issues of soil fertility and land use are therefore closely intertwined with those of biodiversity conservation.

The TAASF2050 research project aims to assess the relevance and feasibility of an agroecological agricultural model in Africa: can agroecological scenarios meet food demand? Do they make African countries more or less dependent on imports? What scope do they offer for reducing the use of synthetic fertilizers while preserving natural ecosystems?

By taking into account various factors (changes in dietary patterns, agricultural yields, and nitrogen fertilizer use), the project seeks to evaluate the implications of an agroecological transition for food sovereignty in African countries and for the preservation of natural ecosystems. More specifically, it aims to determine how far such a model can be scaled without exceeding the limits of land and ecosystems, while improving Africa’s food self-sufficiency. To this end, the project models land use and nitrogen fertilization in Africa up to 2050.

The findings will be valuable for AFD, for which agriculture and biodiversity are key priority sectors. They will also contribute to discussions with African governments on the opportunities and constraints associated with an agroecological transition in their respective national contexts.

The project relies on the GLOBAGRI simulation model developed by CIRAD. Changes in population dietary patterns, agricultural yields, and nitrogen fertilizer use are the model’s main input variables. The preservation of natural capital is treated as a fundamental constraint (the protection of tree-covered areas, the elimination of inputs derived from fossil resources and agricultural pollution, and the maintenance of soil fertility), within a strong sustainability framework.

The project led to the development of GlobAgri Africa 2050, an open-access interactive modelling tool that allows users to explore, country by country, four agricultural scenarios for Africa by 2050. It enables users to test different assumptions regarding dietary patterns and environmental constraints for each of the 45 African countries.

Initial simulations confirm the strong tension between, on the one hand, maintaining agricultural land within limits compatible with the preservation of forest cover and natural grasslands and savannas areas, and, on the other hand, limiting import dependence to a reasonable level for all African countries.

The current results, which correspond to scenarios for changes in dietary patterns (towards protein-richer diets, or toward healthier diets, or those that limit the expansion of agricultural land), can be further enriched with scenarios that AFD's partners may wish to test.

Finally, a more detailed analysis of the availability of organic fertilizing resources is expected, within the next year, to provide an assessment of the risks, at both local and national levels, of failing to ensure sufficient agricultural production to guarantee food security for populations.

• Benoit Faivre-Dupaigre ; Researcher at AFD
• Patrice Dumas ; Researcher at CIRAD, UMR CIRED 
• Rémi Prudhomme ; Researcher at CIRAD, UMR CIRED 
• David Berre ; Researcher at CIRAD, UMR AIDA

West Africa is a very young region: nearly half of its population is under the age of 20. Yet, young people’s dreams and aspirations remain poorly understood. This lack of data is particularly problematic given the significant challenges many of them face: some grow up in marginalized urban peripheries, while others live in border regions shaped by migration dynamics and security tensions. As they enter the labour market, young people are often confronted with a severe shortage of formal employment; at the same time, the impacts of climate change and the deterioration of public services affect their daily lives.

In this context, examining these aspirations is especially relevant, as the role of formal education in pathways to success is sometimes questioned, and young people are increasingly challenging the “dominant models” of success. As supporting youth is a key priority for AFD Group, it is important that its interventions be grounded in a deep understanding of the aspirations of the youth.

This research project listens to young people in Côte d'Ivoire and Senegal to deepen understanding of their aspirations, models of success and life trajectories. More specifically, it seeks to answer three key questions:

1. What are young people’s aspirations, given the range of possibilities available to them, and how do these vary according to their place of residence, gender, and living conditions? 
2. To what extent do their individual and family life trajectories shape their plans and their ability to achieve them? 
3. What role does education play in their aspirations and life paths?

The data collected is intended for direct operational use: it will help adapt AFD Group interventions in the areas of education, training, and decent employment.

The research team, led by the Institute for Education, Family, Health and Gender (IEFSG) at Assane Seck University of Ziguinchor, brings together Peleforo Gon Coulibaly University (Côte d’Ivoire), Félix Houphouët-Boigny University (Côte d’Ivoire), IRD (France), and the University of Ottawa (Canada).

The IEFSG and the two Ivorian universities designed the survey methodology and will implement it with the support of their doctoral students across three main types of territories selected for their diversity:

• Urban areas (Ouakam and Pikine in Senegal; Yopougon and Abobo in Côte d’Ivoire) 
• Border areas (Sindian and Samine in Senegal; Bouna and Ouangolo in Côte d’Ivoire) 
• “Symbolic spaces” with strong community or religious identities (Touba in Senegal; “New Churches” communities in Côte d’Ivoire)

The methodology combines both qualitative and quantitative approaches:

• Qualitative survey: mapping of socio-educational services and youth support systems (interviews with local stakeholders and authorities, in situ observations); organization of focus groups with young people; in-depth individual interviews on their life trajectories. 
• Quantitative survey: conducted with 3,000 young people in each of the two countries, based on the 2023 national census in Senegal and the 2021 census in Côte d'Ivoire. The questionnaire will be administered using the KoboCollect application.

The results of this research project will be disseminated through several formats in order to reach a wide range of audiences:

1. A collective publication or a contribution to a scientific journal, focused on Africa, will present the main findings of the surveys and consolidate the knowledge produced on young people and their aspirations. 
2. Decision-support tools (policy briefs, guidance notes, etc.) will target policymakers and development practitioners. 
3. The possibility of additional formats (podcasts, creations) will be explored to share the collected life stories beyond academic circles.

A final restitution event will also be organized.

• Elodie RICHE, Research Officer at AFD
• Pr Jean-Alain Goudiaby, Sociologist at IEFSG

Ten years after the signing of the Paris Agreement, and five years into the Kunming-Montreal Agreement, he global economy is entering a period of profound structural change, often called “mid-transition”. Climate change, biodiversity loss, energy system transitions and shifting geopolitical dynamics are increasingly shaping economic development, financial stability and public finances. Climate shocks are already affecting fiscal balances and investment needs, while ecosystem degradation threatens key economic sectors such as agriculture, water and natural resources. At the same time, the transition toward low-carbon economies is transforming supply chains, trade relations and industrial strategies.

For Ministries of Finance, these dynamics are emerging as core macroeconomic risks while fostering new opportunities. Yet existing policy frameworks often struggle to integrate climate and nature fat-tailed risks (explication ou lien) into a systemic framework. Developing forward-looking economic scenarios that capture these interactions is therefore essential to support resilient fiscal planning and long-term development strategies.

It is in this context that AFD has launched the Climate and Nature Economic Policy Scenarios (CNEPS) initiative, a multilateral platform for the development of forward-looking economic scenarios to help policymakers anticipate these transformations and inform economic policy choices. It joins forces with an ecosystem of institutional, regional and academic partners to foster a shared language on plausible futures and related resilient economic policies.

The Climate and Nature Economic Policy Scenarios (CNEPS) initiative aims to develop forward-looking economic scenarios that help integrate climate change, biodiversity loss and transition dynamics into macroeconomic policy analysis. The project focuses on three main objectives:

• Technical integration: integrate climate and nature fat-tailed risks within macroeconomic policy frameworks, exploring nonlinear shocks, tipping points and geopolitical regime shifts, while building on existing structured country collaborations of AFD as well as regional and institutional partners.
• Policy interface: translate joint global scenarios into implications for fiscal policy, debt sustainability, industrial strategies and investment planning, while supporting champion countries in developing resilient national financing strategies.
• Coalition building: mobilise Ministries of Finance, Public Development Banks and academic partners, and connect existing finance-minister and public development banking platforms to scale impact and strengthen policy dialogue.

The approach brings together global analytical work and country-level collaboration to explore how climate and nature risks, transition dynamics and geopolitical shifts could affect national economies and public finances.

The initiative builds on partnerships between research institutions, development finance actors and Ministries of Finance in participating countries. Academic partners contribute modelling expertise and scenario design, while Ministries of Finance and Public Development Banks provide policy perspectives and help identify the most relevant economic questions and applications.

The project mobilises an international knowledge network and works with partner countries to ensure that the scenarios developed respond to concrete policy needs and strengthen local analytical capacity.

For this project, AFD is partnering with the University of Exeter.

The CNEPS initiative will deliver a first generation of forward-looking economic scenarios exploring how climate change, biodiversity loss and global transition dynamics could affect national economies and public finances.

Key outputs will include a first mid-transition analytical report presenting emerging global trends and systemic risks, as well as a first set of global scenarios developed with champion countries and regional partners. These scenarios will be translated into country-level assessments exploring implications for resilient fiscal policy, debt sustainability and investment strategies.

The project will also support participating countries in developing a first series of national CNEPS strategies aimed at informing resilient financing pathways and long-term economic planning.

Beyond analytical outputs, the initiative will contribute to policy dialogue and capacity strengthening through workshops, regional exchanges and engagement with international platforms bringing together Ministries of Finance and Public Development Banks.

• Etienne Espagne, Senior Economist, AFD
• Jean-François Mercure, Professor of Climate Policy, Exeter University
• Sam Mugume Koojo, Deputy Co-Chair CFMCA, Country Platform Hub, PAFCA
• Laura Sabogal Reyes, FiCS

In many Brazilian cities, residents spontaneously organize to collectively manage spaces, services, or resources: community gardens, building occupations, and cultural or solidarity-based initiatives. These practices, often referred to as “urban commons,” reflect strong civic engagement in Brazil, yet they remain insufficiently recognized by institutions. The current legal framework primarily favors public–private partnerships, often associated with the privatization of urban services.

In Italy, several cities have found concrete responses to this challenge. Since the 2000s, municipal regulations have enabled citizens to officially collaborate with authorities to take care of urban commons (public spaces, facilities, and heritage). More than 200 cities have adopted this model, which provides a legal framework without commodifying the spaces, resources, and services concerned.

It is within this context that this research project takes place. It is conducted in two cities in the state of Goiás, where strong community dynamics already exist (associations, rural communities, and cultural initiatives). More broadly, the project aligns with AFD’s research priorities on commons and citizen participation. It also contributes to AFD’s broader priorities related to strengthening local governance, citizen participation, social cohesion, and sustainable development.

Read also : How can the Commons approach transform Brazil?

The central research question is: how to create an institutional framework that recognizes and supports these citizen-led practices without turning them into purely market-based services?

To address this, the project seeks to understand how residents in the cities of Goiânia and Goiás collectively take care of their spaces and resources. It also aims to equip local stakeholders with solutions—particularly legal tools—inspired by the Italian experience but adapted to the Brazilian context.

This will take the form of a mapping of local initiatives, the organization of workshops with relevant stakeholders, and the development of a proposed municipal regulation on urban commons. These outputs can help local authorities better support grassroots initiatives, strengthen citizen participation, and develop more inclusive public policies at lower cost.

The project is based on an action-research approach: in addition to fieldwork, interviews, and observations, the research teams organize participatory workshops with residents, associations, and local authorities. A collaborative mapping exercise will document existing practices, while case studies will enable comparisons between Brazilian and Italian experiences. In a second phase, workshops will support the co-construction of concrete initiatives with local stakeholders, and seminars will foster dialogue between researchers, citizens, and policymakers.

The project draws on the expertise of two partners, the Federal University of Goiás and the Polytechnic University of Turin (Politecnico di Torino — PoliTo), as well as the experience developed within the Italian laboratory LABSUS, which specializes in regulations on commons. Local partners (civil society organizations and municipalities) are fully involved.

In addition to scientific outputs, the project includes capacity-building activities for local partners through workshops and collaborative work. It will also deliver several outputs directly useful for local authorities:

• A collaborative mapping of urban commons practices 
• A practical guide with a toolkit for local stakeholders 
• A pilot project co-constructed with a citizen initiative 
• A policy brief proposing a regulation on urban commons

A range of activities will support the dissemination of these tools and results: exhibitions and public events, an online platform, publications.

These outputs will provide local authorities with concrete levers to better support urban commons and will contribute to the broader debate on participatory urban policies in Brazil.

The teams are engaged in a collective dynamic led by La Coop des Communs, the Casa Comum platform, and AFD. The objective is to build a transnational learning community by sharing ongoing work, capitalizing on each other’s experiences, and producing knowledge on the links between commons, citizen participation, and the transformation of public action.This network brings together complementary profiles—researchers, civil society actors, and public decision-makers involved in these initiatives—from Brazil, Colombia, and Europe. Supported by meetings held in Brazil and Italy, this dynamic will lead to a collective publication, currently in preparation, which will compare and contextualize the various research projects undertaken.